000
AXNT20 KNHC 291130
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
705 AM EST FRI NOV 29 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                
A DISCONTINUOUS INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 08N21W TO 08N30W...THEN 
CONTINUES FROM 11N42W TO 07N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND 
TSTMS ARE FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN 21W-31W AND FROM 04N-06N BETWEEN 
11W-14W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                                
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. EXTENDS 
A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF GENERATING COOL DRY NE FLOW IN 
THE RANGE OF 10-20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN LOW LEVEL 
CLOUDINESS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
SHIFT NE THROUGH SAT...AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL RELAX ALLOWING WINDS TO 
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT THIS WEEKEND. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                 
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS ACROSS EASTERN CUBA 
THEN E OF JAMAICA OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO COSTA RICA. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS TRIGGERING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS W OF THE FRONT FROM 10-18N 
BETWEEN 81-85W. ASCAT SCATTEROMETER WINDS FROM 0200 UTC SHOWED 
FRESH NE WINDS W OF THE FRONT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE 
AREA AND LOWER PRESSURE IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA IS SUPPORTING 
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR ALOFT EXCEPT IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL 
RELAX THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE 
AREA...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH THROUGH SUN WHILE THE 
STATIONARY FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE.

...HISPANIOLA...                                               
CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAIL UNDER DRY AND STABLE N FLOW 
ALOFT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH 
FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                                
A DEEP LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE U.S. EAST COAST TRAILS A  
COLD FRONT FROM E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N63W TO 28N69W...THEN AS A 
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO EASTERN CUBA. A BLOCKING 
RIDGE ALONG 60W WILL SHUNT WHAT REMAINS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
NORTHWARD IN THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH EARLY SAT. A MID LEVEL LOW 
CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES EXTENDS A TROUGH SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL 
ATLC TO THE NE CARIBBEAN. THE TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORTS A 1007 MB 
SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N39W. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS LOW 
DRIFTING NE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY. 


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MUNDELL