000 AXNT20 KNHC 282358 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST THU NOV 28 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THE AREA OF COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 11N15W TO 9N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N16W TO 6N24W 7N39W 6N45W AND 4N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N33W 8N36W 5N38W...FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 22W AND 23W...FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 21W AND 23W...AND FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 25W AND 27W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS IN NORTHERN COASTAL SURINAME FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 54W AND 56W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 65W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N79W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W...JUST TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA...TO 30N66W...27N70W...AND 25N73W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N67W 29N71W 25N74W. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE WEST OF AND AWAY FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO- EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...ALONG THE TEXAS GULF OF MEXICO COAST... THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...TO 19N96W...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KBQX...KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KGBK...KEIR...KMYT... KATP...AND KIPN. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA... A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS THE ANGLETON-LAKE JACKSON AREA. HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS COVER PARTS OF THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED IN LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA. A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE NEW ORLEANS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AND AT VALPARAISO IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 87W...INCLUDING IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW APPROACHES FROM THE EAST... ACROSS HISPANIOLA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS APPROACHING HISPANIOLA FROM THE NORTHWEST. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... COVERS THE AREA. FEW TO SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PASS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA WITH A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PASS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A NORTHWEST- TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT IT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHEAST-TO- SOUTHWEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE WIND FLOW BECOMES NORTHEASTERLY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. IT CHANGES AGAIN AND BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY FOR THE REST OF THE TIME PERIOD WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 14N60W TO 16N65W TO 11N81W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN JAMAICA AND 86W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE... AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 76W...AND TO THE WEST OF THE LINE 22N81W 18N85W 16N87W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 80W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF CUBA TO THE EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF HONDURAS/THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF NICARAGUA. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 25N73W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...WESTERN JAMAICA...TO 15N80W...CURVING TO 12N82W AND 10N82W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 19N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N75 22N77W 18N80W. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 28/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.59 IN TRINIDAD...0.33 IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO...0.32 IN ST. THOMAS. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO 8N81W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 9N84W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 9N80W AND 9N81W...AND IT IS ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF WESTERN PANAMA ALONG 8N BETWEEN 81W AND 82W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATED TO THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN COLOMBIA FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 76W AND 77W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM 21N76W TO 10N82W. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. A THIRD AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 68W AND 74W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N79W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W...JUST TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA...TO 30N66W...27N70W...AND 25N73W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N67W 29N71W 25N74W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N40W...TO 20N45W... 17N50W...ALONG A SHEAR AXIS FROM 17N50W TO 16N55W AND 14N60W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 14N60W INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 21N BETWEEN 34W AND 46W. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N22W. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES AWAY FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 30N19W 27N20W 25N22W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 16W AND 22W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 22N61W...TO 15N65W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT1/FZNT01 KWBC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT 31N67W 21N76W. WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 77W. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. A THIRD AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 56W AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM 29N35W TO 24N48W TO 22N53W TO 22N56W. A FOURTH AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 12N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 66W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT