000
AXNT20 KNHC 281755
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
105 PM EST THU NOV 28 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1700 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 
11N15W TO 9N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS 
FROM 9N16W TO 6N30W TO 7N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 
4N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 18W-
28W...AND FROM 4N-13N BETWEEN 31W-46W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                                

AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER MISSISSIPPI 
NEAR 33N90W. COLD NORTHERLY 10-20 KT WINDS ARE OVER THE ENTIRE 
GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS LOW 
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF 
COLD AIR ADVECTION. PRESENTLY TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 40'S 
OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES TO THE 60'S OVER S FLORIDA. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER TEXAS WHILE 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 85W. 
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER TEXAS AND 
THE NW GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
GULF. EXPECT SURFACE RIDGING AND NORTHERLY WINDS FOR THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF 
CAMPECHE IN 24 HOURS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                           
                   
AS OF 1500 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA AT 
21N76W TO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N81W TO W PANAMA NEAR 9N82W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA 
AND COSTA RICA FROM 9N-17N BETWEEN 80W-84W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NW 
OF FRONT. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA NEAR 7N75W TO 
BEYOND SW COSTA RICA AT 8N83W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NW OF 
THE FRONT. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS 
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 75W-83W. 
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. A PATCH OF 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR 
THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE OVER 
THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. 
 
...HISPANIOLA...                                             

RELATIVELY LIGHT TRADEWINDS AND UPPER LEVEL SUSIDENCE ARE 
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR 
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                              
  
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC AT 
30N67W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AT 24N74W. A STATIONARY FRONT 
CONTINUES TO E CUBA NEAR 21N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
120 NM OF THE FRONTS TO INCLUDE THE BAHAMAS. A 1007 MB LOW IS 
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N22W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM 
THE LOW TO 29N19W TO 23N25W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM 
E OF THE TROUGH. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL 
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N41W. UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS. 
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ALL OF THE W ATLANTIC FRONT TO 
BE STATIONARY WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA