000 AXNT20 KNHC 281111 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU NOV 28 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 09N15W WHERE THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 06N23W TO 06N29W...THEN RESUMES WEST OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 06N34W TO 01N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 16W-28W AND FROM 05N-14N BETWEEN 32W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF GENERATING NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT. COLD DRY AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE BASIN AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW CIRROSTRATUS CLOUDS COVERING THE BASIN AND INDICATING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NORTH OF THE AREA DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME. CARIBBEAN SEA... A DEEP MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND ATLC ADJACENT WATERS SW TO THE NW CARIBBEAN BASIN AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N76W...ACROSS WESTERN JAMAICA TO NORTHERN PANAMA NEAR 09N81W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL AS UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE GENERATED BY A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG THE WESTERN ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE SUPPORTING HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 07N BETWEEN 80W- 84W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 16N BETWEEN 75W-79W. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND MODEL DATA SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC SW TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR AND SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICT VERY DRY AIR OVER THIS REGION WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. HOWEVER...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN BASIN IS USHERING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 10N BETWEEN 76W- 82W. THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SE FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS TO REACH THE COASTLINE OF EASTERN CUBA AND THEN IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ...HISPANIOLA... CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAIL AS DRY AND STABLE N-NE FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES ACROSS THE ISLAND. AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT FRI NIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND ATLC ADJACENT WATERS SW TO THE NW CARIBBEAN BASIN AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N69W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W TO NORTHEASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N76W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL AS UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE GENERATED BY A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG THE WESTERN ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 22N BETWEEN 68W-78W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES EXTENDS A TROUGH AXIS SW TO THE CENTRAL ATLC AS WELL AS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE LOW ALOFT SUPPORTS A SURFACE 1000 MB LOW CENTER NEAR 31N23W. A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW EXTENDS ALONG 30N15W 24N21W TO 20N29W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 225 NM S OF THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 20W-29W. THE TROUGH ALOFT ALSO SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 20N32W TO 14N33W...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF 20N BETWEEN 31W-44W. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT E TIL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN IT IS FORECAST TO STALL BEFORE MOVING NE OUT OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN ATLC NEAR 22N37W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR