000 AXNT20 KNHC 271136 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED NOV 27 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN GULF AND IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT WED MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. GALE FORCE WINDS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WED MORNING IN THE SW N ATLC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 10N16W WHERE THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 05N25W TO 03N35W 03N49W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-07N BETWEEN 22W-25W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 02N-08N BETWEEN 21W-30W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 03N-09N BETWEEN 33W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM 30N80W IN THE SW N ATLC...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 26N82W 23N83W INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N86W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE EASTERN GULF AS WELL AS UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE GENERATED BY A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG THE WESTERN ATLC INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ARE SUPPORTING HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND WESTERN CUBA. DENSE CLOUD COVER IS ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN...HOWEVER THE DRY AND COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS BROUGHT BY THE FRONT SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER AT THIS TIME. GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. BY WED EVENING THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED OUT THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND MODEL DATA SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR AND SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICT VERY DRY AIR OVER THIS REGION WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER FROM THE CENTRAL TO THE EASTERN BASIN WITH EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. RAINSHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS BEING SUPPORTED BY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. A DEEP MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN GULF SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE GULF INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N83W TO 17N86W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM NORTHERN HONDURAS TO WESTERN CUBA W OF 80W AND N OF 18N BETWEEN 76W-79W. THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 12N BETWEEN 75W-83W. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WED AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL WEST OF JAMAICA THROUGH THU. ...HISPANIOLA... CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAIL AS DRY AND STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES ACROSS THE ISLAND. AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT FRI MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN GULF AND SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS TO THE SE GULF INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EAST OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE WESTERN ATLC INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO GENERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 23N W OF 73W...INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE NORTH-CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SW N ATLC AS A COLD FRONT WED AFTERNOON GENERATING GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 29N W OF 77W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED S OF THE AZORES SUPPORTS A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 29N24W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW TO 24N27W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE LOW...N OF 26N BETWEEN 18W-22W. SURFACE RIDGING IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH NEAR 39N55W. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 19W- 28W...INCLUDING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR