000 AXNT20 KNHC 270605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED NOV 27 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN GULF AND IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT WED MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. GALE FORCE WINDS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WED MORNING IN THE SW N ATLC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE SE CONUS. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N15W TO 07N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N17W TO 04N33W 05N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 19W-31W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO FROM 06N-11N BETWEEN 32W-62W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A NARROW MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN GULF AND SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM NW FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W SW TO 25N85W 21N87W TO SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 16N92W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF E OF THE FRONT AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ARE SUPPORTING HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 21N BETWEEN 79W-86W. DENSE CLOUD COVER IS OVER THE NW GULF...HOWEVER DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE IS INHIBITING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE WESTERN GULF...SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. BY WED EVENING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OUT OF THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND MODEL DATA SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR AND SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICT VERY DRY AIR OVER THIS REGION WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER FROM THE CENTRAL TO THE EASTERN BASIN WITH EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. RAINSHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS BEING SUPPORTED BY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. A NARROW MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN GULF SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF WHICH EXTENDS INTO THE NW BASIN FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N86W SW TO NORTHERN BELIZE NEAR 18N88W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 14N W OF 81W. THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 11N BETWEEN 75W-82W. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WED AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL WEST OF JAMAICA THROUGH THU. ...HISPANIOLA... CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAIL AS DRY AND STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES ACROSS THE ISLAND. AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT FRI MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A NARROW MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN GULF AND SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS TO THE EASTERN GULF. A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EAST OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE WESTERN ATLC INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO GENERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 24N W OF 76W. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SW N ATLC AS A COLD FRONT WED AFTERNOON GENERATING GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 29N W OF 77W. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N49W TO 27N53W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE AZORES EXTENDS A TROUGH AXIS SW TO SUPPORT TWO SURFACE TROUGHS WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR