000 AXNT20 KNHC 251746 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON NOV 25 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A GALE WARNING FOR N-NW WIND IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AT 26/1800 UTC WEST OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH A 1013 MB LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N95W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GALE FORCE SOUTHERLIES EXPECTED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC BEGINNING AT 27/1200 UTC. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO 08N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N18W TO 05N30W TO 04N40W TO 02N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-08N BETWEEN 21W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE GULF BASIN THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED SOUTH OF EL SALVADOR NEAR 11N89W AND A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING... HEIGHT FALLS AND RESULTANT CYCLOGENESIS HAS DEVELOPED A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 24N95W. A FORMING WARM FRONT EXTENDS EAST TO 25N89W AND BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N81W. A STATIONARY FRONT ALSO EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 18N92W. FINALLY...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N-NW FROM THE LOW TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 29N96W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOST OF THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED IN THE AREAS OF MAXIMUM MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NOTED E OF 95W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND STATIONARY FRONT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 83W- 91W...AND FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 91W-96W. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WHILE TRACKING NE TOWARDS THE MOBILE BAY REGION. THEREAFTER AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SE CONUS WEDNESDAY...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER BLAST OF STRONG N-NW WINDS FOLLOWING IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR IS ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES. THIS IS MAINTAINING RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT IS BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF THE EASTERN CONUS. TRADES THIS AFTERNOON ARE GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS N OF 19N ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS TO THE NORTH OF CUBA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN A FEW LOCATIONS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF ANEGADA PASSAGE FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 61W-66W...AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN S OF 16N. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE TRADES IS ALSO GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA S OF 11N. CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ALONG 08N IS PROVIDING SOME ENHANCEMENT TO CONVECTION S OF 10N BETWEEN THE COAST OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND NORTHWESTERN PANAMA THIS AFTERNOON. FINALLY...THE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE BY LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH PROVIDES THE BUMP IN WIND SPEED. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SKIES REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR AND FAIR THIS AFTERNOON AS RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES OVER THE ISLAND. THIS IS RESULTING IN CONTINUED STABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC FROM 23N66W TO NORTH OF THE ISLAND NEAR 21N73W IS PROVIDING FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 20N BETWEEN 63W-75W IN THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. MORE LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED TO THE EAST OVER THE ANEGADA PASSAGE REGION AND IS LIKELY TO DRIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS POSSIBLY IMPACTING EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 32N61W TO 28N64W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N56W SW TO 25N70W THEN W-SW TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N81W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 64W. TO THE S-SE...A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS NOTED FROM NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS NEAR 21N73W NE TO 27N63W THAT IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS COVERING THE AREA FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 61W-72W. MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY TRAILS TO THE SOUTHEAST REMAINING IN THE VICINITY OF THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N40W THAT SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 18N45W TO 26N42W WHICH CONTINUES TO REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN SURFACE RIDGING THAT COVERS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 20N-28N BETWEEN 36W-43W PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. FINALLY...WITH VERY WEAK AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AMPLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 09N-14N BETWEEN 45W-60W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN