000 AXNT20 KNHC 251131 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON NOV 25 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GALE WARNING FORECAST FROM TUE AFTERNOON TO WED MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLC NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES TO 08N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 05N25W TO 05N41W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 01N-08N BETWEEN 27W-32W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 01N-08N BETWEEN 26W-37W AND FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 20W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 25/0900 UTC ENTERS THE GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N82W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 23N93W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N92W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE LOW TO 27N96W. EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN GULF S OF 24N W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...DENSE CLOUD COVER SPREADS ACROSS THE BASIN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON THE NW AND CENTRAL GULF ALONG WITH MIDDLE-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 25N W OF 90W. SIMILAR CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 83W-92W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION IS GIVING THE GULF WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE IT SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN. BY TUE NIGHT...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO SW GEORGIA EXTENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CARIBBEAN SEA... EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO BANK LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTLINES OF BELIZE...HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. IN THE SW BASIN...THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS COSTA RICA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 08N76W TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 10N E OF 80W. MIDDLE-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER NORTHERN HAITI AND SE OF HISPANIOLA FROM 14N-15N BETWEEN 66W-71W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND MIDDLE-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF BASIN THROUGH MON. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN WED. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER NORTHERN HAITI BEING ENHANCED BY MIDDLE-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGHOUT TUE AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TUE EVENING TO EARLY WED AS A DRY AIRMASS ENTERS THE ISLAND FROM THE EAST. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 25/0900 UTC ENTERS THE SW N ATLC NEAR 30N61W TO 25N73W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N82W. DENSE CLOUD COVER IS EAST OF THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 24N W OF 73W...INCLUDING THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 27N BETWEEN 58W-62W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS SE OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 25N63W TO THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 160 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 20N-24N. WEST OF THE TROUGH...A REGION OF MIDDLE-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EXTENDING TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM THE NORTHERN WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS BETWEEN 69W-75W. MIDDLE-LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 61W-65W. A NARROW UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW OF THE AZORES ISLANDS TO THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 26N41W AND SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 30N34W TO 23N43W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 38W-43W. UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE SE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 07N-16N BETWEEN 45W-61W. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS REGION WED NIGHT INTO THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR