000 AXNT20 KNHC 250600 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON NOV 25 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GALE WARNING FORECAST FROM TUE AFTERNOON TO WED MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLC NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES TO 07N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 05N27W TO 04N45W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 27W-34W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 25W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS INTO THE NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 25/0300 UTC ENTERS THE GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N81W TO 24N87W. FROM THERE...IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 23N94W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N92W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE LOW TO 27N96W. DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N AND W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. N-NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA COASTLINE MIDDLE-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS THAT EXTEND EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION IS GIVING THE GULF WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NW BY LATE MON AFTERNOON AND STRENGTHEN A LITTLE THEN TRACK NE ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL GULF TUE AND TUE NIGHT AND ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COASTLINES OF YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. IN THE SW BASIN...THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS COSTA RICA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 08N74W TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 11N BETWEEN 75W-83W. MIDDLE-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER HISPANIOLA...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF BASIN THROUGH MON. EXPECT FRESH NE WINDS S OF CUBA AND ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT AND MON AS WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS NW CARIBBEAN THEN LIFTS N LATE MON. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER NW CARIBBEAN WED. HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER NORTHERN HAITI BEING ENHANCED BY MIDDLE-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGHOUT TUE AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TUE EVENING TO EARLY WED AS A DRY AIRMASS ENTERS THE ISLAND FROM THE EAST. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER NW ATLC INTO THE NE CONUS IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 25/0300 UTC ENTERS SW N ATLC NEAR 30N63W TO 26N71W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W. DENSE CLOUD COVER IS EAST OF THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 70 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N BETWEEN 61W-64W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS SE OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 28N66W TO 22N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 80 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. FARTHER EAST...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 63W-65W AND FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 60W-62W. A NARROW UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW OF THE AZORES ISLANDS TO THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 27N42W AND SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT SLOWLY DISSIPATES FROM 30N35W TO 26N42W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AT THE TAIL OF THE FRONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 39W-44W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 09N-14N BETWEEN 45W-60W. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS REGION WED NIGHT INTO THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR