000 AXNT20 KNHC 241753 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN NOV 24 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A GALE WARNING CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANALYZED FROM THE TAMPA BAY REGION WESTWARD TO 26N92W WHERE THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 18N94W. NW TO N WINDS OF 30-35 KT ARE FORECAST S OF 23N W OF 95W. SEE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO 08N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N16W TO 05N30W TO 04N43W TO 02N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-08N BETWEEN 26W-37W...AND FROM 09N-13N BETWEEN 34W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD LONGWAVE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NE CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE TAMPA BAY REGION. THE FRONT CONTINUES W-SW FROM 28N83W TO 26N92W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 24N93W THEN SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 18N94W. WHILE SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SPINE OF THE EASTERN MEXICO COAST...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N97W S-SE TO THE STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 24N94W. OVERALL... ACTIVE PRECIPITATION AREAS ARE LIMITED TO THE WARM SECTOR SE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 88W-92W...AND WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT W OF 87W. OTHERWISE...THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE A GRADUAL MOVEMENT TO THE S-SE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WITH CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AS THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT STRENGTHENS. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAK LOW TO FORM IN THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF AND MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE NW GULF EARLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH THE LOW DEEPENING AND EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS AND GULF COAST LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER BLAST OF STRONG N-NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW IN WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AS THE LOW MOVES NE. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR IS ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON AS WEST- NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES. THIS IS MAINTAINING RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WITH AN OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT CONTINUES TO BE WEAK WITH TRADES GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN A FEW LOCATIONS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N62W TO 15N71W AND FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 71W-80W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE TRADES IS ALSO GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA S OF 11N. CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ALONG 08N IS PROVIDING SOME ENHANCEMENT TO CONVECTION S OF 10N BETWEEN THE COAST OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND FAR NORTHWESTERN PANAMA THIS AFTERNOON. FINALLY...THE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE BY LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC STRENGTHENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PROVIDING THE BUMP IN WIND SPEED. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SKIES REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR AND FAIR THIS AFTERNOON AS RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES OVER THE ISLAND. THIS IS RESULTING IN CONTINUED STABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. MOST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC AND TO THE SW IN THE VICINITY OF JAMAICA AND AREAS SOUTH OF JAMAICA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE NE CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N69W SW TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. TO THE SE...A PRE- FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS NOTED FROM THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W TO 30N69W THAT IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS COVERING THE AREA WITHIN 210 NM EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY TRAILS TO THE SOUTHEAST REMAINING NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 59W-68W. OTHERWISE...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N43W THAT SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N33W SW TO 22N44W WHICH CONTINUES TO BRIDGE A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N27W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN