000 AXNT20 KNHC 241106 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN NOV 24 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GALE WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO S OF 23N W 95W AND ASSOCIATED TO A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 28N82W TO 25N92W TO 18N93W. GALE WARNING EXPECTED THROUGHOUT SUN MORNING. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL EAST ATLC NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES TO 09N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 06N26W 04N40W TO NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 09N-13N BETWEEN 33W-41W AND FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 23W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 27N82W TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N90W TO 22N92W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE S OF 23N W 95W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. EXCEPT FOR THE SE GULF...DENSE CLOUD COVER SPREADS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 27N AS WELL AS WITHIN 110 NM EAST OF THE FRONT FROM 22N-27N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF 22N W OF 92W. IN THE SE GULF...DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE SUN. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NW GULF MON EVENING ASSOCIATED TO A NEW FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE E PACIFIC NEAR 08N89W IS PROVIDING THE BASIN WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THIS FLOW CONTINUES TO BE DRY AND STABLE WHICH IS RESULTING IN MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED IN THE NW BASIN N OF 16N W OF JAMAICA. MIDDLE-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE CENTRAL BASIN IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS BETWEEN SOUTHERN HAITI AND JAMAICA FROM 15N-19N. E-NE FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT IS BANKING LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA...PANAMA AND SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF BASIN THROUGH MON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT INTO MON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN BY WED NIGHT. HISPANIOLA... STRONG N-NW WIND SHEAR ALONG WITH DRY STABLE AIR CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND. EXCEPT FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS...CURRENT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUE MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N76W TO 28N80W AND A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 29N69W TO 23N73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE OF THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 145 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 22N-25N. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 30N52W. A NARROW MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N36W SW TO 22N44W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE N OF 21N BETWEEN 33W-44W. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 29N25W. OTHERWISE...A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 61W-68W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR