000 AXNT20 KNHC 240558 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN NOV 24 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GALE WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO S OF 26N W OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 29N83W TO 26N92W TO 19N94W. GALE WARNING EXPECTED THROUGHOUT SUN MORNING. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES TO 09N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 06N30W 04N43W TO NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 08N-15N BETWEEN 32W-44W AND FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 24W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W TO THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 25N92W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE S OF 26N W OF THE FRONT. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N OF 23N BETWEEN 87W-92W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 19N W OF 92W. IN THE SE GULF...DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SE AND REACH FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE SUN. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NW GULF TUE AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED TO A NEW FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE E PACIFIC NEAR 10N91W IS PROVIDING THE BASIN WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THIS FLOW CONTINUES TO BE DRY AND STABLE WHICH IS RESULTING IN MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED IN THE NW BASIN S OF 19N W OF 80W. MIDDLE-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE CENTRAL BASIN IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA FROM 17N-19N. E-NE FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT IS BANKING LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 85 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA...PANAMA AND SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF BASIN THROUGH MON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT INTO MON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN BY WED. HISPANIOLA... STRONG N-NW WIND SHEAR ALONG WITH DRY STABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND. EXCEPT FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS...CURRENT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUE MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH WITH BASE EAST OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N78W TO 29N81W AND A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 29N71W TO 25N73W...HOWEVER THERE IS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 30N54W. A NARROW MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N37W SW TO 25N41W WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE TO 22N45W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE N OF 20N BETWEEN 34W-45W. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 28N23W. OTHERWISE...MIDDLE-LEVEL DIVERGENCE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 60W-68W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR