000 AXNT20 KNHC 231738 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT NOV 23 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GALE FORCE WARNING CURRENTLY IN EFFECT OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N88W TO 28N94W TO 23N98W. NW TO N WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KT ARE OCCURRING S OF 26N W OF THE FRONT. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 9N13W TO 7N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 7N16W TO 3N30W TO 5N45W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 10W- 30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 35W- 47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 30N84W TO TO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AT 26N94W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 19N96W. A GALE IS S OF 26N W OF FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT W OF 90W. ELSEWHERE...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER S FLORIDA ...THE SE GULF...AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...S OF 26N E OF 84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING SW TO W UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA AT 7N75W TO BEYOND COSTA RICA AT 10N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 67W- 71W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER HONDURAS AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND CONVECTION TO BE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN. HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ALSO OVER THE ISLAND. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N61W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 30N44W TO 21N57W TO 22N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE TROUGH. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N37W TO 22N45W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N23W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W- 60W ENHANCING THE SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO CENTERED OVER W AFRICA NEAR 22N14W ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER W AFRICA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA