000 AXNT20 KNHC 222342 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI NOV 22 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INITIATE BY 24/0600 UTC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD CURRENTLY OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. NW TO N WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT S OF 24N W OF THE FRONT. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO 05N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N17W TO 03N25W TO 07N34W TO 05N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-13N BETWEEN 18W-29W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 31W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING BETWEEN A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NICARAGUA NEAR 13N87W AND A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 31N118W. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY SKIRTING THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE NW GULF NEAR 30N94W EXTENDING SW TO 27N97W ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS AND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS OCCURRING N OF 25N W OF 93W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED N OF 28N BETWEEN 88W-93W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A GRADUALLY WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER GEORGIA NEAR 34N83W. EASTERLY FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT PRECEDES THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH STRONG N-NE WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA NEAR 12N86W THAT IS PROVIDING MUCH OF THE BASIN E OF 85W WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS FLOW REMAINS DRY AND STABLE WHICH IS RESULTING IN MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS AT THIS SURFACE THIS EVENING. W OF 85W HOWEVER...LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH AMPLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS GENERATING AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 11N-20N BETWEEN 83W-91W... INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND INLAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNDERNEATH THE STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS OF ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN N OF 13N BETWEEN 64W-70W AND THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN S OF 12N E OF 70W. LASTLY...TRADES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN 20 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN FAIR THIS EVENING AS OVERALL TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PREVAIL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AND STABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS IN POSITION TO STAY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS PROVIDING CONTINUED FAIR SKIES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLC WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 46N48W THAT SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH BOUNDARY ANALYZED FROM 32N39W SW TO 24N54W WHERE IT BECOMES A SHEAR LINE TO 23N66W TO 26N75W TO THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS NEAR 25N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR LINE. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N69W PROVIDING THE BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 34N/35N AND THE SHEAR LINE AS NOTED ON EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASSES. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER COLD FRONT...ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE DEEP LAYERED LOW TO THE NORTH IS ANALYZED FROM 32N29W W-SW TO 30N37W THEN SW TO 23N47W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 20N20W THAT CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP TROPICS NORTHWARD TO 28N IN A ZONE BETWEEN 10W-23W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREA COVERING 14N-28N BETWEEN 10W-22W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF COASTAL WEST AFRICA THIS EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED WEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N23W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN