000
AXNT20 KNHC 221742
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI NOV 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST AT 42 HOURS...WITH A COLD FRONT 
FROM 29N83W TO 24N95W TO 18N95W. EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 
30 TO 35 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 24N 
TO THE WEST OF 95W. ALSO EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 
30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH AND 
WEST OF THE FRONT.
 
...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                
     
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES ACROSS COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N13W 
TO 5N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N17W TO 3N25W TO 7N34W TO THE 
COAST OF N BRAZIL AT 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 20W-30W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT HAS REACHED THE TEXAS COAST 
EXTENDING FROM HOUSTON TO BEYOND CORPUS CHRISTIE MOVING SE. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. 
ELSEWHERE...THE TAIL END OF A SHEAR LINE IS OVER S FLORIDA FROM 
25N80W TO 25N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE 
SHEAR LINE. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER 
CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM 27N-30N E OF 82W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF 
IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING PRODUCING 10-15 KT E TO SE 
WINDS. PATCHES OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE W 
GULF NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO AT 23N98W...AND NEAR THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE AT 19N95W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING 
SW TO W UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE GULF ...AND A 
GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INLAND OVER THE NORTH GULF 
STATES. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO 
EXTEND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO MEXICO WITH CONVECTION OVER 
THE W GULF W OF 92W.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM THE GULF OF 
HONDURAS TO N COSTA RICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF 
THE TROUGH. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA AT 7N75W TO 
BEYOND COSTA RICA AT 9N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM 
OF THE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NE 
CARIBBEAN FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 60W-68W TO INCLUDE THE PUERTO 
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH 
TO MOVE W AND PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. 
ALSO EXPECT THE CONVECTION OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN TO GRADUALLY 
DISSIPATE. 
 
HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS ALSO OVER THE ISLAND. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO 
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1027 MB HIGH IS OFF THE COAST OF VIRGINIA NEAR 37N69W. A 
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 
31N43W TO 26N53W TO 23N63W. A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES TO S FLORIDA 
AT 25N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N38W 
TO 24N45W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 
1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N21W. OF 
NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N 
BETWEEN 40W-70W ENHANCING THE SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
SURFACE TROUGHS. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO CENTERED NEAR 
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 20N20W ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER W 
AFRICA.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA