000 AXNT20 KNHC 220604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI NOV 22 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... MELISSA HAS BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE CENTER OF POST- TROPICAL CYCLONE MELISSA AT 22/0300 UTC IS NEAR 41.5N 29.0W... ABOUT 425 KM/230 NM TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES. MELISSA IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD 24 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY AND THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN SECTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZORES TONIGHT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 40N TO 43N BETWEEN 24W AND 32W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES ACROSS COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 8N13W TO 5N15W AND 4N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N19W TO 4N23W 7N30W 6N36W AND 5N46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 3N TO 9N BETWEEN 20W AND 32W...FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 34W AND 38W...WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 4N48W...AND FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 55W AND 57W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 6N TO THE EAST OF 20W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 65W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 70W... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. A RIDGE IS ALONG 32N83W IN GEORGIA...TO WESTERN CUBA... BEYOND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 28N IN DISORGANIZED AREAS OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS OF PRECIPITATION. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KBBF...KGUL...KEIR...KSPR...KMYT...KIPN...KMDJ...AND KDLP. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS THE 30 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 30N93W TO 26N97W. EXPECT NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE AREA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS COVER THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN HAITI BETWEEN 72W AND 74W. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PASS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BEING ON THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PASS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH A WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PASS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...EXCEPT POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 64W AND 66W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 8N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO 8N80W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 9N84W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N TO THE WEST OF 76W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO 22N57W...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 12N64W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO 29N50W 26N59W AND 26N61W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 26N61W TO 27N70W AND 26N80W. SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N41W 25N45W 20N49W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N39W 26N50W 24N60W 24N70W AND 24N80W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 17N23W JUST OFF THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 6N TO 23N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 35W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE AREA FROM 9N TO 15N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 33W. A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N22W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 13N TO 32N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 30N41W 25N45W 20N49W SURFACE TROUGH. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT FROM 31N43W TO 27N65W THEN SHEAR LINE TO 26N80W. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT AND SHEAR LINE N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 40W. A THIRD AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 40W AND 48W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT