000 AXNT20 KNHC 180604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 100 AM EST MON NOV 18 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 32N55W 27N55W 17N53W 10N56W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N49W TO 31N50W. A WARM FRONT IS ALONG 31N50W TO A 1001 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N53W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE 1001 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 22N54W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 22N54W TO 20N60W AND 19N67W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 42W AND 58W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 17N BETWEEN 43W AND 50W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 17N52W 11N59W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE 1001 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD. THE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTH ATLANTIC...AFTER THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. GALE-FORCE WINDS...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 13 TO 17 FEET...ARE OBSERVED TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN A 31N50W 27N53W 18N57W FRONTAL BOUNDARY/FRONTAL TROUGH TO 59W. EXPECT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 11 FEET FROM N OF 23N EAST OF THE TROUGH TO 43W. EXPECT NORTHEAST 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 10 TO 14 FEET NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 59W AND 67W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 11 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 41W AND 73W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES ACROSS COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W TO 7N20W AND 7N25W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N25W TO 7N30W 9N41W 8N47W AND 9N52W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 24W AND 30W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N TO THE EAST OF 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 29N75W... ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N87W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED AT THE ICAO STATIONS...KVAF... KEMK...KGUL...KGBK...KEHC...KEIR...KSPR...KDLP...AND KMDJ. VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS ARE OBSERVED AT MANY OF THE STATIONS IN THIS AREA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 30 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT 29N83W TO 26N97W. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. ...HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 32N55W 27N55W 17N53W 10N56W. NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS REACHING HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR... APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALSO COVERS HISPANIOLA. LIGHT RAIN...AND SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER HISPANIOLA AT THE MOMENT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA...FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 73W. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PASS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL BE INFLUENCING HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 18 HOURS OR SO. A TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD...TOWARD HISPANIOLA DURING THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB IS SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST FOR 250 MB...EXCEPT FOR THE IDEA THAT THE WESTWARD-MOVING TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AT 500 MB...GIVING WAY TO ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW AROUND HISPANIOLA FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS OR SO OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PASS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THAT IS TO THE EAST OF HISPANIOLA EVENTUALLY REACHES THE ISLAND BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 21N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 16N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...BETWEEN 60W AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...MOVING SOUTHWARD...ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SIMILAR CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 16N TO THE EAST OF 75W. BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 80W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 32N55W 27N55W 17N53W 10N56W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 70W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N76W IN COLOMBIA...TO 8N80W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 9N84W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 76W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...FROM 4N TO CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE EAST OF 90W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH MOROCCO NEAR 32N8W TO 24N19W 13N26W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 26N31W...TO 15N32W AND 12N42W. THIS RIDGE IS TO THE EAST OF THE 1001 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N53W AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO 29N75W...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N87W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS RIDGE IS TO THE WEST OF THE 1001 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N53W AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 36-HOUR FORECAST OF A COLD FRONT FROM 31N73W TO 28N80W. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT