000 AXNT20 KNHC 170547 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 26N BETWEEN 45W-59W ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N45W TO 22N54W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES TO 6N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N30W 5N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 10W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING IS PRODUCING SE TO S WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. A SMALL EMBEDDED 1013 MB LOW IS HOWEVER OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N87W. 20-30 KT WINDS ARE N OF THE CENTER. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 28N E OF 86W. A SMALL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 22N90W TO 18N91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL PRODUCING SW TO W UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER SE TEXAS AND THE NW GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE INLAND OVER THE N GULF STATES WITH PREFRONTAL CONVECTION OVER THE N GULF N OF 28N. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE LOW TO NW COSTA RICA AT 10N86W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ELSEWHERE...THE TAIL END OF A SHEAR LINE IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN FROM 19N60W TO N OF PUERTO RICO AT 20N66W TO N HAITI AT 20N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE SHEAR LINE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS....A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SUPPRESSING THUNDERSTORM BUILDUPS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO PERSIST NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH...AND FOR SHOWERS TO MOVE S FROM THE NE CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA MOVING S. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ISLAND THAT SHOULD PREVENT THUNDERSTORMS FROM BUILDING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 38N63W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 31N45W TO 27N50W TO A 1009 MB LOW AT 22N54W TO 19N60W. A GALE IS W OF THE FRONT. SEE ABOVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 43N22W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 30N30W. IN THE TROPICS ... A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 14N59W TO 10N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 21N53W ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE N TO 27N52W...AND DEEPEN WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA