000 AXNT20 KNHC 170006 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 27N BETWEEN 44W-55W ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N44W TO 22N54W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE EAST TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 07N12W AND CONTINUES TO 05N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 05N30W 07N44W TO THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 06N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 220 NM N OF THE AXIS E OF 28W...FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 28W-34W AND FROM 05N-13N BETWEEN 46W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1032 MB HIGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 45N49W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW TO THE EASTERN GULF TO GENERATE MOSTLY RETURN FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT ACROSS THE BASIN. FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF DELAWARE W OF 70W SW TO THE NE GULF THERE IS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO SUPPORT A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 27N86W. IN THE SW GULF...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N88W TO 18N93W. EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM SE OF THE LOW CENTER AND WITHIN 20 NM OFF THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA COASTLINE...FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE BASIN BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA... EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE BASIN WITH DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE SW BASIN...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 50 NM OF THE COASTLINES OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA W OF 80W. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS AN AXIS SW TO THE LESSER ANTILLES AND SUPPORTS A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 14N58W TO THE LOW TO 09N59W. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS GENERATING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND RAINSHOWERS FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO AS WELL AS BARBADOS. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED DISSIPATE LATER TODAY BUT THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ...HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 50W- 60W IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT TRANSITIONS INTO A SHEAR LINE EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN HISPANIOLA COASTAL WATERS. THIS IS GENERATING CLOUDINESS OVER HAITI AND WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE MONA PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE CURRENTLY SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1032 MB HIGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 45N49W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW TO THE SW NORTH ATLC. FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF DELAWARE W OF 70W SW TO THE NE GULF THERE IS A WEAKNESS IN THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 34N74W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 27N81W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 50W-60W IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N45W TO 21N53W. A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES SW TO 20N58W AND THEN WESTWARD TO NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N OF 17N BETWEEN 42W- 55W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 64W-68W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLC IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 10N-20N E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR