000
AXNT20 KNHC 161735
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A GALE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC W OF A STATIONARY FRONT N OF 
28N BETWEEN W OF THE FRONT TO 60W. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 
BELOW GALE FORCE TONIGHT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC 
NEAR 8N13W AND CONTINUES TO 6N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES ALONG 7N40W 7N45W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 
6N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 17W-
28W. 
 
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               

THE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION THAT WAS OVER THE SE GULF OF 
MEXICO HAS DISSIPATED. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE 
BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 22N97W TO 18N94W PRODUCING A WIND SHIFT. IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE 
EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER 
THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE NW 
GULF FROM MEXICO...OTHERWISE MOSTLY DRY AIR ACROSS MOST OF THE 
GULF EXCEPT THE SE GULF. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE 
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

 
CARIBBEAN SEA...                                               

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF 
PANAMA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS....A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS 
CENTERED OVER EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC 
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR 
CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W TO INCLUDE CUBA 
AND CENTRAL AMERICA. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                        

CURRENTLY HAITI IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER WHILE SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOVING W. WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY INDICATES DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ISLAND THAT 
SHOULD PREVENT THUNDERSTORMS FROM BUILDING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE 
IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE HOWEVER EXPECTED OVER THE 
ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                              

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N44W 
TO 26N50W TO 21N56W. A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES TO JUST N OF HAITI 
AT 20N72W. A GALE WARNING IS W OF THE STATIONARY FRONT N OF 28N 
W OF THE FRONT TO 60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
180 NM E OF THE FRONT AND 90 NM W OF THE FRONT. A RIDGE AXIS IS 
N OF 15N E OF THE FRONT. IN THE TROPICS...A SURFACE TROUGH IS E 
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 15N58W TO 9N59W. A 1009 MB LOW IS 
EMBEDDED ON THE TROUGH AT 11N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
90 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC W OF 60W. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E 
ATLANTIC N OF 15N BETWEEN 20W-35W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
FOR A 1009 MB LOW TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT NEAR 26N51W WITH 
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW TO BE NEAR 
TRINIDAD IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
DGS