000 AXNT20 KNHC 161125 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A GALE IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO WITH E TO SE WINDS FROM 25N TO 28N E OF 87W. A 16/0224 UTC ASCAT PASS VERIFIED THE GALE FORCE WINDS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW GALE THIS MORNING AT 16/1200 UTC. A GALE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC W OF A STATIONARY FRONT N OF 28N BETWEEN 45W-60W. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW GALE THIS AFTERNOON AT 16/1800 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W AND CONTINUES TO 6N25W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N40W 7N47W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 6N54W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 10W- 32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE TAIL END OF A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM W CUBA AT 23N82W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 27N88W. SURFACE WINDS ARE 20 KT HIGHER ON THE N SIDE OF THE SHEAR LINE TO INCLUDE GALE FORCE WINDS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 80W-85W. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 22N97W TO 18N95W PRODUCING A WIND SHIFT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER JAMAICA PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE CONVECTION AND SHOWERS TO BE OVER MOST OF THE GULF DUE TO SURFACE RETURN FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTING FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM E CUBA AT 20N74W TO W CUBA AT 23N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA N OF 20N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N BETWEEN 86W-88W. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA AT 7N76W TO N COSTA RICA AT 10N86W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO GUATEMALA. FURTHER E...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. IN THE UPPER LEVELS....A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER JAMAICA PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W TO INCLUDE CUBA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY HAITI IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOVING W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ISLAND THAT SHOULD PREVENT THUNDERSTORMS FROM BUILDING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE HOWEVER EXPECTED OVER THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 36N65W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 32N44W TO 26N50W TO 21N56W. A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES TO E CUBA AT 20N74W. A GALE IS W OF THE STATIONARY FRONT N OF 28N BETWEEN 45W-60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1036 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 47N15W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 30N35W. IN THE TROPICS... A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 14N58W TO 9N59W. A 1009 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE TROUGH AT 11N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 20W-40W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A 1009 MB LOW TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT NEAR 26N51W WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW TO BE NEAR TRINIDAD IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA