000 AXNT20 KNHC 151115 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI NOV 15 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES TO 7N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N30W 4N43W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 2N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 20W- 37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM W CUBA AT 23N84W TO N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 23N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 82W-90W. A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N77W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO E TEXAS. THE N GULF N OF 25N HAS 15-25 KT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE ENTIRE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N78W PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A WARM FRONT TO FORM OVER THE SE GULF WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF S OF 27N. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM E CUBA AT 21N76W TO W CUBA AT 23N84W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N BETWEEN 82W-88W. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA AT 11N73W TO N COSTA RICA AT 11N83W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 16N BETWEEN 80W-90W. FURTHER E...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 14N66W TO 10N66W PRODUCING ONLY A WINDSHIFT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS....A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N78W PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W TO INCLUDE W CUBA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY HISPANIOLA IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ISLAND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED HOWEVER TO ADVECT OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUERTO RICO WITHIN 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N77W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 32N46W TO 28N50W TO 22N66W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO E CUBA AT 21N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 42W-51W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A 1040 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 47N15W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 30N40W. IN THE TROPICS... A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 14N53W TO 9N54W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 52W-55W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 50W. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 8N BETWEEN 35W-50W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT A 110 KT JETSTREAM TO DIP SOUTH TO 20N OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 58W-65W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA