000 AXNT20 KNHC 141812 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST THU NOV 14 2013 CORRECTION FOR THE WORDING OF THE FORECAST INFORMATION FOR HISPANIOLA TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GALE WARNING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS THE GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF THE WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT 23.5N80W 21.5N90W 18.5N93W...NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 35 TO 40 KT...AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 12 TO 16 FT. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 13 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT TO 23N TO THE WEST OF 90W. A THIRD AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 14 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 90W. A FOURTH AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 27N TO 29N TO THE EAST OF 91W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES ACROSS WESTERN COASTAL GUINEA NEAR THE BORDER WITH SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W...TO 7N17W 6N20W 6N36W...AND 6N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 27W AND 37W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 50W. ONE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N12W 24N22W. A SECOND TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N32W TO A 28N31W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 22N32W...TO 9N42W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 280 NM TO 500 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 11N43W 18N30W...AND WITHIN 500 TO 700 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 18N30W BEYOND 24N16W. OTHER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN 40W AND 52W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 50W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 30N71W AND DISSIPATING IN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N56W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 28N60W AND 23N70W. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES ALONG 23N70W 22N76W 23N82W 22N90W TO 19N93W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 92W AND 96W BETWEEN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND COASTAL MEXICO...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N32N49W 28N53W 26N58W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 300 NM TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 26N58W 20N73W. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 14/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.20 IN MERIDA IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND 0.12 IN BERMUDA. A SURFACE RIDGE IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO REGION...CURVING THROUGH EAST TEXAS...THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...TO A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N99W IN COASTAL MEXICO... INTO THE SOUTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC ...AND THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT 26N81W 23N90W 18N93W FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 94W. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 23N TO 25N TO THE EAST OF 87W...INCLUDING IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ...HISPANIOLA... COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR...AS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALSO COVERS HISPANIOLA. FAIR SKIES APPEAR ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE MOMENT. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB AND FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA. THE WIND FLOW AT 700 MB WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. THE WIND FLOW AT 500 MB WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND NORTHEASTERLY FOR THE REST OF THE TIME. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN 80W RIDGE FOR 48 HOURS. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA... ALONG 60W/61W FROM 9N IN COASTAL VENEZUELA TO 14N. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 14/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.46 IN TRINIDAD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF 76W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR...AS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALSO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 76W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 10N80W... BEYOND 9N84W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N78W 11N80W 13N82W 15N83W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM COASTAL COLOMBIA TOWARD THE BORDERS OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS THE SEA HEIGHT 9 TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 79W. A THIRD AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 71W AND 80W. A FOURTH AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET TO THE WEST OF 85W...HIGHEST IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 51W FROM 9N TO 15N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 49W AND 52W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO 28N46W AND TO 20N64W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT 31N57W TO 23N70W THEN STATIONARY FRONT TO 22.5N80W. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 16 FEET...HIGHEST NORTH...TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT TO THE EAST OF 64W. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST IS ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. THAT AREA CONSISTS OF NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF 70W...AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 14 FEET TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS...TO 8 FEET ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE BAHAMAS...AND TO 12 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT