000 AXNT20 KNHC 141136 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU NOV 14 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO S OF 22N W OF A GRADUALLY DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS W-SW TO THE SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N93W. SEE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO 07N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N16W TO 04N22W TO 06N37W TO 06N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-12N BETWEEN 27W-43W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 09N50W TO 15N50W WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 09N-14N BETWEEN 45W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA NEAR 45N58W TO 35N63W TO A BASE NEAR 31N70W. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE GULF VIA THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W W-SW TO 23N88W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N93W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. WHILE MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT LIES N OF 28N OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES OVER THE BASIN THIS MORNING ADVECTING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC REGION OVER MEXICO TO OVER THE GULF IN THE FORM OF MOSTLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLEARING SKIES ONLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF N OF 26N E OF 84W...INCLUDING MUCH OF FLORIDA AND THE SE CONUS TO THE NORTH. A SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. THE CURRENT STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BECOME DIFFUSE WITH LEFTOVER ENERGY DEVELOPING A SURFACE TROUGH BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE NE GULF TO THE SW GULF FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N75W AND IS PROVIDING MUCH OF THE BASIN N OF 12N E OF 75W WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT. THIS IS RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY PASSING ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY. W OF 75W...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED WITH INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING W OF 77W. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION THIS MORNING IS ALONG A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LINE EXTENDING FROM 10N78W TO INLAND NE NICARAGUA NEAR 14N84W. WITH A COLD FRONT LINGERING TO THE NORTH ANALYZED ALONG 23N...TRADES WILL PERSIST IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY UNTIL THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS AND THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES GRADUALLY OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY HISPANIOLA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE ISLAND NEAR 18N75W. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE RESULTING AT THE SURFACE FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS LIMITING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA NEAR 45N58W TO 35N63W TO A BASE NEAR 31N70W. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N61W SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W WHERE THE FRONT BECOMES DISSIPATING INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO VIA THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. TO THE EAST...A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N58W TO 27N62W TO 23N69W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS S OF 30N...AND N OF 30N BETWEEN 49W-60W. FARTHER EAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1043 MB HIGH CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 48N19W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO 32N38W TO 25N50W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN