000 AXNT20 KNHC 140551 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU NOV 14 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO S OF 23N W OF 92W NORTH OF A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS W-SW TO THE SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N95W. SEE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE SW NORTH ATLC NORTH OF A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM EAST OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N63W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SEE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO 05N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N17W TO 06N40W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-11N BETWEEN 25W-45W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 09N50W TO 14N49W WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 46W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA NEAR 45N61W TO 35N68W TO A BASE NEAR 31N80W. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE GULF VIA THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 25N80W W-SW TO 21N93W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N95W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. WHILE MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT LIES N OF 28N INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION... SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES OVER THE BASIN THIS EVENING ADVECTING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC REGION OVER MEXICO AND OVER THE GULF IN THE FORM OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLEARING SKIES ONLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF...INCLUDING MUCH OF FLORIDA AND THE SE CONUS. A SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. THE CURRENT STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY AS THE COLD FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE WITH LEFTOVER ENERGY DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGHING FROM THE NE GULF TO THE SW GULF FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N70W AND IS PROVIDING MUCH OF THE BASIN N OF 12N E OF 75W WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT. THIS IS RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY A PASSING ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWER EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. W OF 75W...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED WITH INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING W OF 77W. WITH A COLD FRONT LINGERING TO THE NORTH ANALYZED ALONG 23N...TRADES WILL PERSIST IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY UNTIL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS AND THE STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES GRADUALLY OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY HISPANIOLA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE ISLAND NEAR 18N72W. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE RESULTING AT THE SURFACE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS LIMITING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA NEAR 45N61W TO 35N68W TO A BASE NEAR 31N80W. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N63W SW TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N78W AND INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO VIA THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. TO THE EAST...A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N61W TO 23N73W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS S OF 29N...AND N OF 29N BETWEEN 53W-65W. NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT...FREQUENT GUSTS OF GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR ANOTHER 6 HOURS WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING SOMEWHAT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FARTHER EAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1043 MB HIGH CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 47N22W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO 32N39W TO 25N55W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN