000 AXNT20 KNHC 132312 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED NOV 13 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO N THE OF FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS TONIGHT AND WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE THU. SEE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR FOR THE NW ATLC W OF THE FRONT INTO NW AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS THROUGH EARLY THU. SEE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N12W AND CONTINUES TO 8N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N20W 6N27W TO 10N41W. THE ITCZ IS DISRUPTED BY A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 15N48W TO 9N49W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 23W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDS FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TO OVER THE SE CONUS SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT AT 13/2100 UTC ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N80W ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND CONTINUES ALONG 23N88W 21N93W TO S MEXICO JUST E OF VERACRUZ. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN IS GIVING THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE FRONT AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE FRONT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF S OF 29N. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD S BEHIND THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1037 MB HIGHS OVER KENTUCKY AND NE TEXAS. COLD FRONT WILL RACE SE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF GULF TONIGHT THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT N ACROSS SE AND S/CENTRAL PORTIONS AS A SHEAR LINE THU AND FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N77W AND A SECOND UPPER HIGH NEAR 19N65W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 76W-83W INCLUDING JAMAICA AND FROM 19N-22N W OF 82W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A WEAK 1008 MB LOW IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N81W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N BETWEEN 77W-80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF 15N W OF 77W. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY FROM 13N-18N W OF 66W. GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND N PORTIONS OF YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT BECOMING STATIONARY OVERNIGHT THEN DRIFT N AS A SHEAR LINE THU AND FRI. SURFACE RIDGE N OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT E FRI THROUGH SUN TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS N OF THE SHEAR LINE. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY HISPANIOLA IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ISLAND AND COUPLED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TO OVER THE SE CONUS SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT AT 13/2100 UTC ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR BERMUDA AND CONTINUES ALONG 28N72W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N54W TO 23N74W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE UPPER HIGH NEAR 19N65W NE TO BEYOND 32N55W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE GULF OF MEXICO FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N62W TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA TONIGHT THEN STALL AND TRANSITION TO A SHEAR LINE FROM 32N52W TO CUBA THU NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW