000 AXNT20 KNHC 131148 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED NOV 13 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A GALE WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT AS A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA W-SW TO THE EAST- CENTRAL MEXICO COAST NEAR 22N98W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE PUSHING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH GALE FORCE NE WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SEE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO 07N24W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N24W TO 06N27W TO 09N45W TO 09N50W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 09N44W TO 12N43W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-08N BETWEEN 11W-16W...AND FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 26W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER THE MID- ATLC SEABOARD SW TO BASE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY NEAR 30N89W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N82W W-SW TO 24N95W TO THE EAST- CENTRAL MEXICO COAST NEAR 22N98W. WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG OR TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT...PLENTY OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD FROM OVER MEXICO TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF AND SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. OVERCAST SKIES ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS BASIN-WIDE AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. THE PRIMARY IMPACT FROM THE FRONT IS GALE FORCE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE BASIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED WIND FIELD WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT WITH WINDS REMAINING ABOVE 20 KT EXPECTED GENERALLY E OF 90W AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF S OF 22N THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N74W AND INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N AND THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN IN THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND GULF OF HONDURAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE INFLUENCES BOTH OF THESE AREAS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS GENERALLY S OF 12N W OF 76W AND W OF 85W RESPECTIVELY. ANOTHER AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS OCCURRING FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 75W-83W DUE TO STRONGER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DRY AND STABLE FLOW ALOFT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND AND THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY AND OVERALL STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LIES OVER THE MID-ATLC AND SE CONUS SEABOARD THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N73W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR29N81W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS NOTED SE OF THE FRONT FROM 22N76W TO 26N74W TO 30N70W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES CONTINUE TO ADVECT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO OVER PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 25N W OF 62W. WITH PLENTY OF VERTICAL LIFTING DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF A LINE FROM 25N80W TO 28N60W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 47N13W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SW TO THE AZORES NEAR 39N28W TO 23N66W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED WITHIN THE MOIST S-SE FLOW OF THE RIDGE N OF 26N BETWEEN 40W-55W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN