000 AXNT20 KNHC 120551 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT BEGINNING 13/0000 UTC AS A COLD FRONT EMERGES INTO THE NW GULF WATERS AND SWIFTLY PUSHES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BASIN WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF NE WINDS TO GALE FORCE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. SEE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO 10N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N20W TO 06N25W TO 07N44W TO 05N52W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AXIS FROM 03N-10N ALONG 44W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-10N BETWEEN 11W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N81W THAT IS PROVIDING SOUTH- SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 107W CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE OVER MEXICO AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD OVER A MAJORITY OF THE GULF BASIN. THIS MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL LIFT ALONG WITH LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 18N90W TO 25N89W IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS GENERALLY S OF 28N BETWEEN 82W-97W. OTHERWISE...EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY REINFORCING SURFACE RIDGING WILL BARREL SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AND INTRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS...NOTE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE...TO THE GULF TUESDAY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N81W AND INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 15N E OF 65W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED WEST OF A LINE FROM 16N86W TO 09N77W THAT CONTINUES TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 10N83W TO 15N85W. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED W OF 79W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DRY AND STABLE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ADVECT ON BRISK TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT. LASTLY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 13N69W AND IS PROVIDING FOR INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS TO THE EAST OVER PORTIONS OF THE SE CARIBBEAN AND WINDWARD ISLANDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY S OF 15N BETWEEN 58W-65W. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND AND THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY AND OVERALL STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED WELL TO THE EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N60W THAT SUPPORTS A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS...ONE ANALYZED FROM 27N61W TO 31N60W AND THE OTHER ANALYZED FROM 26N72W TO 30N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 52W-72W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED BETWEEN THE AZORES AND THE IBERIAN PENINSULA NEAR 40N20W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN