000 AXNT20 KNHC 120001 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON NOV 11 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS AND SWIFTLY PUSHES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BASIN WITH NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS FROM 21N-23N W OF 94W ON TUE NIGHT. SEE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N16W TO 10N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N20W TO 7N22W TO 6N35W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 21W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 26N89W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 18N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 86W-95W. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N WITH 10-15 KT NE SURFACE WINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 19N81W PRODUCING SW TO W UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE GULF. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE S GULF S OF 25N. CARIBBEAN SEA... BESIDES THE SURFACE TROUGH AND CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM E HONDURAS AT 16N85W TO COSTA RICA AT 10N83W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 81W-87W. A MONSOON TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS FROM W COLOMBIA AT 6N77W TO NW COSTA RICA AT 10N86W PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER N VENEZUELA N OF 8N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND E CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 14N AND E OF 64W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 19N81W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND CENTRAL AMERICA...AND OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 85W. ALSO EXPECT THE SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA DUE TO THE TRADEWIND FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ISLAND AND IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE S OF THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N70W TO 30N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER E FROM 32N59W TO 26N62W. A 1016 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE TROUGH AT 29N61W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 54W-66W. THE TAIL END OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N40W TO 31N49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1031 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 39N18W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 30N30W. IN THE TROPICS...A SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 12N35W TO 4N41W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE THE TROUGH AXIS. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 45W-55W ENHANCING SHOWERS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE W ATLANTIC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA