000 AXNT20 KNHC 111806 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON NOV 11 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AS A COLD FRONT EMERGES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS AND SWIFTLY PUSHES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BASIN WITH NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS FROM 21N-24N W OF 95W. SEE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO 08N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N18W TO 06N27W TO 06N38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 20W-28W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 28W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N79W IS PROVIDING SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NORTHWARD OVER THE SW GULF AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND NORTH-CENTRAL BAHAMAS. IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS...AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO JALAPA MEXICO SUPPORTS TWO SURFACE TROUGHS. THE FIRST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N88W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W TO GUATEMALA NEAR 16N90W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE SE GULF IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS E OF THE AXIS S OF 25N...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE SECOND TROUGH IS ON THE SW GULF FROM 24N95W TO 18N94W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AS WELL AS UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS S OF 22N W OF 91W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES N OF 26N AS WELL AS WEST OF THE TROUGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 10-20 KT. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY REINFORCING SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AND INTRODUCE NORTHEASTERLY GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE GULF TUESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N80W AND INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW AND SW PORTIONS OF THE BASIN...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. MIDDLE-LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE SE GULF IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS W OF 84W. A MIDDLE-LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING SE FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM EASTERN HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W SW TO PANAMA NEAR 09N80W. UPPER- LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE S-SW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE CENTERED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. LASTLY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED IN GLOBAL MODEL DATA IMPACTING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND LESSER ANTILLES. INCREASED CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND DUE TO DRY AND OVERALL STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. EXCEPT FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS...DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN BASIN SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS ANALYZED FROM 30N78W TO 29N81W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE TROUGH ALOFT ALSO SUPPORTS A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS...ONE EXTENDING FROM 30N67W TO 26N70W...THE SECOND FROM 30N60W TO 26N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N 27N BETWEEN 52W-67W. FARTHER EAST...THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N42W SW TO 29N47W WHERE IT BECOMES A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT TO 28N53W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA NEAR 39N17W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR