000 AXNT20 KNHC 111141 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON NOV 11 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 09N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N19W TO 07N25W TO 07N33W TO 07N40W TO 03N46W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-12N BETWEEN 14W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N80W THAT IS PROVIDING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NORTHWARD OVER THE SW GULF AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION. THIS MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL LIFT ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS GENERALLY S OF 27N BETWEEN 81W-92W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 19N92W TO 23N97W AND IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25N96W TO 21N96W TO 18N93W. OTHERWISE...EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY REINFORCING SURFACE RIDGING WILL BARREL SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AND INTRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE GULF TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N80W AND INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW AND SW PORTIONS OF THE BASIN...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED WEST OF A LINE FROM 20N85W TO 10N77W THAT CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE VICINITY OF TWO SURFACE TROUGHS...ONE ANALYZED FROM 16NN88W TO 22N88W AND THE OTHER FROM 10N81W TO 16N84W. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION S OF 16N IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION N OF 16N IS W OF 85W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DRY AND STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW- TOPPED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ADVECT ON BRISK TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT. LASTLY...A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED IN GLOBAL MODEL DATA IMPACTING THE SE CARIBBEAN AND WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING. INCREASED CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 14N BETWEEN 55W- 70W. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND AND THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY AND OVERALL STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED WELL TO THE EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N45W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N40W SW TO 29N44W WHERE IT BECOMES A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT TO 29N51W TO 27N57W. SINCE MOST OF THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FAIRLY LIMITED AND REMAIN WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND FARTHER WEST WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 31N61W TO 25N78W IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS ANALYZED FROM 27N64W TO 31N61W AND FROM 24N78W TO 29N69W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA NEAR 41N15W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN