000 AXNT20 KNHC 110550 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON NOV 11 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W TO 10N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N19W TO 08N30W TO 05N40W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 48W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-11N BETWEEN 13W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N81W THAT IS PROVIDING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION. THIS MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL LIFT ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W TO 24N88W IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS GENERALLY S OF 26N BETWEEN 84W-97W. OTHERWISE... EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY REINFORCING SURFACE RIDGING WILL BARREL SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AND INTRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE GULF TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N81W AND INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW AND SW PORTIONS OF THE BASIN...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED EAST OF A LINE FROM 20N84W TO 09N76W THAT CONTINUES TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 10N81W TO 16N84W TO 22N88W. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION S OF 15N IS W OF 80W AND MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION N OF 15N IS W OF 85W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THAT DRY AND STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ADVECT ON BRISK TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT. LASTLY...AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 60W EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS IMPACTING THE ISLANDS AND FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MONDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND AND THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY AND OVERALL STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED WELL TO THE EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N48W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N41W SW TO 28N46W TO 27N53W. SINCE MOST OF THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FAIRLY LIMITED AND REMAIN WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AND FARTHER WEST FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 66W-76W. TO THE SOUTH...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 23N47W TO 16N64W THAT SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 07N-16N ALONG 60W. LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE FEATURE ALONG WITH STRONGER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS GENERATING ENHANCED CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 06N-17N BETWEEN 50W-62W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED BETWEEN THE AZORES AND THE IBERIAN PENINSULA NEAR 40N16W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN