000
AXNT20 KNHC 102321
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                
     
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES ACROSS COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 13N16W TO 
9N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N18W TO 8N30W TO 5N40W TO THE 
COAST OF N BRAZIL AT 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 17W-45W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 
25N88W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 18N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA 
N OF 19N WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... 
AND THE S GULF S OF 26N. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 
26N WITH 15-20 KT NE SURFACE WINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN 
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N86W 
PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE GULF. CONSIDERABLE UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE...YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE S GULF S OF 25N. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BESIDES THE SURFACE TROUGH AND CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA...ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 
THE GULF OF HONDURAS AT 18N85W TO S NICARAGUA AT 11N85W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 81W-89W.  
A MONSOON TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS FROM E PANAMA TO NW COSTA RICA 
PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER NE VENEZUELA N OF 4N AND E 
OF 69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF 
PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN 
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N86W. 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND CENTRAL AMERICA WHILE 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE W 
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 85W. ALSO EXPECT SHOWERS TO 
ADVECT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM THE ATLANTIC DUE TO AN 
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH.  

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF 
HISPANIOLA DUE TO THE TRADEWIND FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER 
THE ISLAND AND IS FORCAST TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THGE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N58W. A COLD FRONT 
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 32N43W TO 28N50W TO 27N57W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A SHEAR LINE 
CONTINUES 27N60W TO 26N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM 
OF THE SHEAR LINE. A 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E 
ATLANTIC NEAR 40N15W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 32N35W. IN THE 
TROPICS...A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 
17N58W TO 7N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE THE 
TROUGH AXIS. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 50W-60W ENHANCING SHOWERS. 
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO 
MOVE E WITH CONVECTION.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA