000 AXNT20 KNHC 101757 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N14W TO 05N30W TO 03N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-09N BETWEEN 19W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS PROVIDING SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING DOMINATES N OF 26N W OF 94W WITH NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT. SURFACE TROUGHINESS DOMINATES SOUTH OF 26N AS A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 26N87W TO 21N88W TO CENTRAL GUATEMALA NEAR 15N89W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE PRIMARILY EAST OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS WITHIN 200 NM EAST OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NE OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 26-27N BETWEEN 84W-87W. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY REINFORCING SURFACE RIDGING WILL BARREL SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AND INTRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE GULF TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE SW GULF STARTING MONDAY NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITHIN 180-200 NM OFF THE COASTLINES OF YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA ARE ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE FAR WESTERN BASIN. THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH TWO SURFACE TROUGHS. THE FIRST SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF WATERS NEAR 26N87W TO 21N88W TO CENTRAL GUATEMALA NEAR 15N89W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT EXTENDS TO 85W. THE SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N84W...ACROSS EASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA TO NORTHERN PANAMA NEAR 09N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT EXTENDS TO 75W S OF 15N. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED IN THE NW BASIN AS WELL AS DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE TO SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER. AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 57W OR EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE ISLANDS AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... THE ISLAND IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AS WELL AS DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES BOTH RIDGING ALOFT AND DRY AIR WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON FAVORING FAIR WEATHER. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS ARE LIKELY DUE TO DAYLIGHT SURFACE HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. FARTHER EAST...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N46W SW TO 27N53W WHERE A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES ALONG 26N64W TO 24N75W. WITH A LOW-LEVEL DRY ENVIRONMENT MOSTLY IN PLACE...CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 70 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND SHEAR LINE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS GENERATING ENHANCED CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 39W-46W. AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 26N47W SW TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 12N61W IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 18N56W TO 09N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIMITED TO 09N-12N BETWEEN 55W-62W DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY WIND SHEAR NORTHWARD. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED BETWEEN THE AZORES AND THE IBERIAN PENINSULA NEAR 40N16W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR