000 AXNT20 KNHC 101143 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 09N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N17W TO 05N30W TO 04N40W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-09N BETWEEN 18W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N86W THAT IS PROVIDING SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF THIS MORNING. A VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS ALSO NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF 31N91W...BUT ENHANCED CLOUDINESS REMAINS INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS WIDELY SCATTERED ACROSS THE BASIN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS PRIMARILY EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT PREVAIL. WITHIN CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL REGION AND SE GULF S OF 25N BETWEEN 83W-88W...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MARGINALLY STRONGER ALOFT PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THIS REGION. OTHERWISE...EAST- NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY REINFORCING SURFACE RIDGING WILL BARREL SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AND INTRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE GULF TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N86W AND INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 63W WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N81W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT E OF 80W DUE TO SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW...HOWEVER W OF 80W...LIFTING DYNAMICS...HOWEVER MARGINAL...ARE PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 11N82W TO 16N86W TO 22N88W TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 16N W OF BETWEEN 82W-90W. FARTHER SOUTH...IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE TROUGHING... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 76W-84W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THAT DRY AND STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ADVECT ON BRISK TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT. LASTLY...AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 56W EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE ISLANDS AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND AND THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY AND OVERALL STABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. ONLY NEAR 30N50W IS WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING NOTED THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N47W SW TO 27N59W THEN WESTWARD AS A SHEAR LINE TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N78W. SINCE MOST OF THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FAIRLY LIMITED AND REMAIN WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT E OF 55W. ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SHEAR LINE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING GENERALLY WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. TO THE SOUTH...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 23N50W TO 12N62W AND SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 11N57W TO 17N56W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE PRIMARILY EAST OF THE SURFACE FEATURE ALONG WITH STRONGER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS GENERATING ENHANCED CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 11N-20N BETWEEN 48W-57W. STRONGER CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO FROM 08N-11N. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED BETWEEN THE AZORES AND THE IBERIAN PENINSULA NEAR 40N18W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN