000
AXNT20 KNHC 092359
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT NOV 09 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                
     
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES ACROSS COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 13N17W TO 
12N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 12N18W TO 7N20W TO 5N30W TO THE 
COAST OF N BRAZIL AT 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 25W-52W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S 
FLORIDA AT 26N80W TO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AT 25N85W. A SHEAR 
LINE CONTINUES TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 24N90W 19N94W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE GULF FROM 23N-25N 
BETWEEN 84W-86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE 
REMAINDER OF THE FRONT AND SHEAR LINE. A 1024 MB HIGH IS 
CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA WITH A RIDGE AXIS TO E TEXAS. IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N85W PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE GULF. 
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PERSIST 
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...YUCATAN PENINSULA ...AND W CUBA. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 18N82W TO PANAMA 
AT 9N80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN 
AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 76W. A MONSOON TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS FROM 
E PANAMA TO NW COSTA RICA TO EL SALVADOR ENHANCING CONVECTION. 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER N 
COLOMBIA AND N VENEZUELA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER 
ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND CUBA. IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N85W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE 
SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N80W ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN. IN CONTRAST RIDGING IS PRODUCING NORTHERLY FLOW OVER 
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W. 

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF 
HISPANIOLA DUE TO THE TRADEWIND FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER 
THE ISLAND AND IS FORCAST TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THGE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 32N54W TO 
27N63W TO 26N70W TO S FLORIDA AT 26N 80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E 
ATLANTIC NEAR 40N20W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 26N40W. IN THE 
TROPICS...A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 
20N54W TO 9N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE 
THE TROUGH AXIS. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 45W-60W ENHANCING 
SHOWERS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO 
CONTINUE TO MOVE E WITH CONVECTION.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA