000 AXNT20 KNHC 091804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT NOV 09 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES ACROSS COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 13N17W TO 12N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 12N18W TO 7N21W 5N41W AND 5N50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 44W AND 50W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 52W AND 57W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 34W AND 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 39W AND 41W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 16W AND 33W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO 24N48W 18N54W 14N57W AND 11N59W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N42W 25N43W 20N49W 15N51W 10N54W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 19N54W 14N56W 7N57W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 52W AND 57W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 50W...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO 31N59W AND DISSIPATING. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N57W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 28N65W AND 27N73W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 27N73W TO 26N81W IN SOUTH FLORIDA...TO 23N90W IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... CURVING INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 45 NM OF CUBA BETWEEN 82W AND 86W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN 93W AND 95W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 50W AND 58W...AND FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 70W AND 73W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N52W 26N66W 24N72W 26N85W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...INTO NORTHERN MEXICO...TO COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 19N97W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 09/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...IS 0.17 IN BERMUDA. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF MEXICO AND THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KMZG...KGUL...KGBK...KMYT... KDLP...AND CLEARING AT KVAF AND KMDJ. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT EDINBURG AND FALFURRIAS. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS PARTS OF SKIES THAT ARE NEAR PANAMA CITY. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS IN VALPARAISO FLORIDA. THE SKIES ARE CLEARING AROUND TALLAHASSEE. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE SKIES FROM NAPLES TO THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA...INCLUDING PARTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC ...AND THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT 26N81W 23N90W 18N93W FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 94W. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 23N TO 25N TO THE EAST OF 87W...INCLUDING IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ...HISPANIOLA... BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS SURROUND HISPANIOLA...FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS APPROACHING HISPANIOLA FROM THE BAHAMAS AND BEYOND. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT GENERAL EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BE AT 500 MB. NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BE AT 250 MB. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 13N81W...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 79W/80W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N. THIS TROUGH SHOWS UP WELL IN LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 74W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N82W IN WESTERN PANAMA...THROUGH COSTA RICA FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST...THROUGH WESTERN NICARAGUA...ACROSS EL SALVADOR...BEYOND 14N90W IN SOUTHERN GUATEMALA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IT IS NOT REALLY EASY TO FIND PRECIPITATION THAT IS RELATED SOLELY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS PRESENT WITH THE 13N81W CYCLONIC CENTER. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 18-HOUR FORECAST OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A FAR-EASTERN ATLANTIC MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N21W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N25W...TO 9N27W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 23N TO 30N BETWEEN 17W AND 30W... AND FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 23W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N31W TO 28N36W AND TO 23N46W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...COLD 31N58W 27N73W... STATIONARY 27N73W 26N80W. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 10 FEET WITHIN 180 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 9 TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W. WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF A LINE 28N35W 14N61W 07N50W. A THIRD AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 40W AND 46W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT