000 AXNT20 KNHC 090538 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT NOV 09 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... NONE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 7N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N27W TO 7N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 38W-43W AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 38W-42W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-8N E OF 23W TO THE COAST OF SW AFRICA AND WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 32W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC WHICH BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR NAPLES AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF ALONG 24N88W 21N92W TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 20N BETWEEN 91W-94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SW GULF S OF 22N W OF THE FRONT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN COVERING THE GULF WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE OVER THE SE GULF S OF 25N BETWEEN 80W-85W INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF NW OF THE FRONT AND ANCHORED OVER WEST VIRGINIA. FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SAT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF LATE TUE THROUGH WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N82W COVERING THE AREA N OF 16N W OF 74W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 21N86W INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND BELIZE TO GUATEMALA NEAR 15N89W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 17N W OF 85W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 12N80W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 72W-75W. THE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 74W-80W LEAVING THE E CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE AREA. HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND AND IN THE GULF OF GONAVE TONIGHT. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COUPLED WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LIMIT ANY HEAVY PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR BERMUDA AND CONTINUES ALONG 28N73W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO FLORIDA NEAR BOCA RATON THEN BECOMING STATIONARY NEAR NAPLES FLORIDA BEFORE CONTINUING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE COLD FRONT TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA. THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 24N67WW TO BEYOND 32N56W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N50W ALONG 22N52W INTO THE TROPICS TO 11N55W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N49W TO 26N53W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 23N49W TO 32N55W. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE IS E OF THE ABOVE UPPER TROUGH ALONG 39W FROM THE DEEP TROPICS TO BEYOND 32N. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 19N51W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N56W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N-20N BETWEEN 45W-55W. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES. COLD FRONT WILL STALL FROM 32N59W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W SAT BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE SUN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO SE FLORIDA BY LATE WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW