000 AXNT20 KNHC 090004 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI NOV 08 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE SW GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS GALE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM 26N81W TO 23N88W TO 18N93W. SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N12W TO 07N14W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N14W TO 05N27W TO 04N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-05N BETWEEN 13W-24W...AND FROM 01N-07N BETWEEN 35W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD LONGWAVE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS AN AXIS FROM MAINE TO ABOUT 32N70W AND THE SW TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N69W TO WEST PALM BEACH TO NAPLES WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 23N88W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W. A MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 24N94W DOMINATES THE BASIN WITH DRY AIR SUBSIDING N OF 22N...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. IN THE SW GULF OR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 22N BETWEEN 90W AND 95W. THE MOST IMPORTANT IMPACT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS THE SPECIAL FEATURE HIGHLIGHTING AN ONGOING GALE WARNING ACROSS A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF WATERS VALID THROUGH TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE GULF WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. DUE TO A MIDDLE-LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN...THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WITHIN THE SOUTHERN GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE-LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SE TO CENTRAL PANAMA IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN FROM 20N81W TO 18N86W TO INLAND WESTERN HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W. UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM AN ELONGATED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF TO THE NORTHERN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS S OF 21N. THE MIDDLE-LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM EASTERN HONDURAS TO CENTRAL COSTA RICA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH EXTENDS WITHIN 100 NM OFF THE COASTLINE FROM 10N-16N. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NEAR JAMAICA IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE...WHICH IS RESULTING IN MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC. TRADES ARE FORECAST FRESH TO STRONG THROUGH THE FRONT PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. HISPANIOLA... EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED ISOLATED SHOWERS ON CENTRAL HAITI AND EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND REMAIN RELATIVELY TRANQUIL DUE TO DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE. A MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISLAND THROUGHOUT LATE SUNDAY...THUS SUPPORTING DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE AND FAIR WEATHER. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD LONGWAVE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS AN AXIS FROM MAINE TO ABOUT 32N70W AND THE SW TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N69W TO WEST PALM BEACH TO NAPLES. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N70W TO 23N75W. RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE SW N ATLC IS HINDERING ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SURFACE FEATURES. AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N50W EXTENDS A TROUGH AXIS SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 10N55W TO SUPPORT A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS. THE FIRST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 34N48W TO 28N51W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N51W TO 11N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 7N BETWEEN 41W-50W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR