000 AXNT20 KNHC 081145 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI NOV 08 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS GALE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF. WINDS ARE GALE FORCE BEHIND FRONT S OF 22N. SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 7N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N29W 3N42W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 145 NM ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA E OF 9W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 5N15W TO 3N28W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE ITCZ TO 9N BETWEEN 38W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS TO THE N GULF COAST SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN CAPE CANAVERAL AND TAMPA BAY ALONG 25N88W 22N93W TO MEXICO NEAR 18N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SW GULF S OF 23N W OF 94W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT E OF 93W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL CUBA COVERING THE GULF WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 22N THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BETWEEN 85W-90W. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SE OVER THE GULF IN WAKE OF THE FRONT ANCHORED OVER N TEXAS AND ARKANSAS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE GULF TODAY THROUGH SAT MORNING STALLING FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA/LOWER KEYS INTO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N81W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE OVER THE W ATLC AND SW OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 19N86W INLAND OVER HONDURAS TO 15N85W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 22N W OF 84W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. A SECOND WEAKER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N77W TO 12N78W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 74W-79W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N62W. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 12N75W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA N OF 10N W OF 73W. SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL LINGER IN THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN TO E CARIBBEAN THROUGH TODAY THEN INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE W ATLC. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE GULF OF GONAVE WHILE HISPANIOLA IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING COULD GENERATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE THE WEEKEND INCREASING ON MON AS THE SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N75W CROSSING FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL. DENSE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE COLD FRONT TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA. THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL CUBA EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE W ATLC TO BEYOND BERMUDA COVERING THE AREA W OF 60W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N52W ALONG 23N55W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N62W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N46W ALONG 28N48W TO 24N54W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 17N58W ALONG 26N46W TO BEYOND 32N43W. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH W OF THE AZORES. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO SE FLORIDA TODAY AND FROM 32N55W TO THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS LATE SAT THEN STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW