000 AXNT20 KNHC 071132 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU NOV 07 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A GALE WARNING GOES INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AT 07/1800 UTC. THIS GALE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE NW GULF. WINDS WILL REACH GALE FORCE BEHIND FRONT NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE W/CENTRAL AND SW GULF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N16W ALONG 13N19W TO 9N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N30W TO 4N43W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 28W-44W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 30W-43W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 12N40W TO 8N41W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 30W-50W AND WITHIN 180 NM ALONG THE COAST LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE PLAIN STATES TO OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF AT 07/0900 UTC NEAR ATCHAFALAYA BAY LOUISIANA TO INLAND OVER TEXAS NEAR BROWNSVILLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND TO THE COAST OF TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1016 MB LOW OVER PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO 27N90W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER LOW IS INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR 21N98W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SW GULF SW OF A LINE FROM TAMPICO MEXICO TO S MEXICO NEAR 18N93W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE NE GULF EXTENDING FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO 27N86W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 26N BETWEEN 83W-86W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL CUBA COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF/YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 23N86W INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN BEYOND 21N85W AND COUPLED WITH THE DIFFLUNCE ALOFT PROVIDED BY THE UPPER RIDGE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BETWEEN 82W-87W. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE AND REACH FROM FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO FAR W BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS EVENING AND FROM SW FLORIDA TO SW BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI EVENING BEFORE STALLING FROM UPPER FLORIDA KEYS TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE SAT AND BECOMING DIFFUSE SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE OVER THE W ATLC AND SW OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SE GULF OF MEXICO/YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 23N86W TO 15N80W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-22N W OF 81W AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC NARROWING OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W TO NEAR 12N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 72W-79W AND DOTTING THE AREA WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 19N63W THROUGH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO OFF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N65W. THE TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL LINGER THROUGH FRI. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN TO E CARIBBEAN TODAY THROUGH FRI THEN INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE SW PENINSULA OF HAITI WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND. DAYTIME HEATING COULD GENERATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL CUBA EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N72W COVERING THE AREA W OF 65W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 27N BETWEEN 60W-78W ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 22N74W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS ALONG 27N78W TO BEYOND 32N79W WITH A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 26N70W TO 22N71W. NETHER SURFACE TROUGH IS PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N54W ALONG 24N57W INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N63W SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS ALONG 32N43W 31N48W TO 28N54W WITH A SHEAR LINE CONTINUING TO 27N63W. A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N48W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 25N52W TO 24N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 21N54W TO 30N42W AND FROM 23N41W TO 28N37W. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1023 MB HIGHS...ONE JUST S OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS AND A SECOND NEAR 29N27W. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE IS SHIFTING NE INTO THE N CENTRAL ATLC. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE CONUS COAST THIS EVENING AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO SE FLORIDA FRI AND FROM 32N58W TO THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS SAT THEN STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE SUN INTO MON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW