000 AXNT20 KNHC 070554 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU NOV 07 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A GALE WARNING GOES INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AT 08/0000 UTC. THIS GALE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE NW GULF. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM 30N83W TO 22N95W TO 18N94W BY THU EVENING WITH GALE FORCE WINDS FROM 22N-24N W OF 96W AND FROM 25N81W TO 20N94W TO 18N93W BY FRI EVENING WITH GALE FORCE WINDS S OF 21N W OF THE FRONT. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 9N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N26W 6N36W TO 7N48W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 250 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 30W-41W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE ITCZ TO 13N BETWEEN 30W-38W AND FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 38W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE PLAIN STATES TO OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF NEAR LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA TO INLAND OVER TEXAS S OF CORPUS CHRISTI. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM E OF THE FRONT AND W OF THE FRONT TO THE COAST OF LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. AN UPPER LOW IS INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR 20N98W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SW GULF WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 20N93W TO 23N97W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE N GULF EXTENDING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO 26N86W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 28N90W TO THE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 88W-91W AND WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 27N91W TO 25N92W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER W CUBA COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 83W-87W. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE AND REACH FROM MOBILE ALABAMA TO TAMPICO MEXICO BY EARLY THU FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI BEFORE STALLING FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO E BAY OF CAMPECHE SAT AND BECOMING DIFFUSE SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N83W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE OVER THE W ATLC AND SW OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 18N W OF 87W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-22N W OF 78W TO THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC NARROWING OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N62W TO NEAR 12N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 15N68W TO 12N79W AND FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 71W-75W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF HAITI. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH FRI. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN TO E CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI THEN INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 71W-75W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF HAITI WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ABATED AND COUPLED WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REDUCE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...WITH DAYTIME HEATING AFTERNOON SHOWERS COULD STILL OCCUR. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER W CUBA EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N75W COVERING THE AREA W OF 65W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 27N W OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 2877W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO 22N73W WITH A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 26N70W JUST E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO 21N71W. NETHER SURFACE TROUGH IS PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N53W ALONG 23N57W INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N62W WITH A SHEAR LINE EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREA FROM A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 31N44W TO 28N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N-33N BETWEEN 41W-56W AND WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM 19N56W TO 28N48W. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N59W TO BARBADOS. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1025 MB HIGHS...ONE OVER THE MADEIRA ISLANDS AND A SECOND NEAR 29N30W. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE N/CENTRAL ATLC. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE CONUS COAST THU EVENING AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO SE FLORIDA FRI AND FROM 32N58W TO FLORIDA STRAITS SAT THEN STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE SUN INTO MON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW