000 AXNT20 KNHC 050602 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE NOV 05 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 31N59W TO 26N65W...THEN SHEAR LINE TO 22N76W. WITHIN 60 NM OF E COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 25N NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE NW OF FRONT AND SHEAR LINE N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT NE OF BAHAMAS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... NO TROPICAL WAVES ARE ON THE 05/0000 UTC SURFACE MAP. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES ACROSS COASTAL AFRICA THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF SENEGAL AND GAMBIA...TO 11N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N18W TO 7N22W 7N36W AND 7N43W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 11W AND 13W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE EAST OF 30W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 47W/48W FROM 12N TO 19N. A WEAKENING MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 17N47W. COMPARATIVELY LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 8N TO 32N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 20N103W IN MEXICO TO 25N98W IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO...BEYOND 32N92W IN NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE... APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE 26N80W 24N85W 19N90W 15N90W. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS REACHING THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS OF LOUISIANA AND TEXAS BETWEEN 92W AND 97W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 24N96W IN THE WESTERN GULF WATERS...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS THAT RANGE IN HEIGHT FROM 4000 FEET TO 8000 FEET ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KMZG... KBBF...KBQX...KVAF...KEMK...KHQI...KGUL...KGBK...KMDJ...KMYT... AND KDLP. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS FROM ANGLETON-LAKE JACKSON TO THE HOUSTON HOBBY AIRPORT INCLUDING IN GALVESTON. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN PENSACOLA FLORIDA...INCLUDING ALL AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN IN LOUISIANA. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS TO THE EAST OF 87W...AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 87W. ...HISPANIOLA... A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 16N76W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER...ACROSS HAITI...TO 22N70W AND 23N66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ..ALONG 27N64W 23N67W TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN 69W AND 70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND 77W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 69W AND 77W INCLUDING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 68W AND 80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 05/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...IS 0.41 IN CURACAO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N84W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND SURROUNDING AREAS SUCH AS CUBA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND FLORIDA FROM 17N TO 27N BETWEEN 79W AND 90W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A RIDGE IS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 18N TO CUBA BETWEEN 80W AND THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT GENERAL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PERIODS OF SHORT-WAVE INVERTED TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AT TIMES...THROUGH THE COMPARATIVELY LARGER-SCALE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE...TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE 29N75W ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS FORECAST TO END UP MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE SECOND PART OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD... AS A NORTHEAST-TO- SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA. FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 28N64W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO 27N65W 27N73W 27N80W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO 29N62W 27N64W AND 25N67W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 25N67W TO 24N74W AND TO 21N77W IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 18N TO CUBA BETWEEN 80W AND THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N84W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND SURROUNDING AREAS SUCH AS CUBA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND FLORIDA FROM 17N TO 27N BETWEEN 79W AND 90W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A RIDGE IS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 18N TO CUBA BETWEEN 80W AND THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 05/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...IS 0.55 IN BERMUDA. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND 86W IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IT IS NOT REALLY EASY TO FIND PRECIPITATION THAT IS RELATED SOLELY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS PRESENT WITH THE 21N84W CYCLONIC CENTER. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N17W TO A 28N25W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 26N31W...TO A 27N45W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 33N11W 31N17W 29N36W 27N43W 26N50W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 60W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 16N TO 25N TO THE EAST OF 55W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT