000 AXNT20 KNHC 050004 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON NOV 04 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 07N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N19W TO 06N30W TO 06N42W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-10N BETWEEN 14W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE ENTIRE GULF BASIN WHICH IS PROVIDING AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SUPPORTS SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLC SW OVER THE SE CONUS TO EAST-CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N90W. A RELATIVELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THUS PROVIDING FOR NE TO E WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT N OF 24N E OF 96W. WEST OF 96W AND N OF 24N...E WINDS VEER SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF EXTENDING FROM 25N95W TO 19N92W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW EXTENDING SW FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO GUATEMALA SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 22N87W...ALONG THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO SOUTHERN BELIZE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. BY LATE WEDNESDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF IS FORECAST TO RELAX SOMEWHAT WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N82W WHICH EXTENDS A TROUGH AXIS SW TO ANOTHER BROADER UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN GUATEMALA NEAR 14N91W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THIS REGION IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 16N W OF 80W. THE REMAINDER CARIBBEAN SEA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 15N74W. AT THE SURFACE AND WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTER...A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16N75W FROM WHICH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NE TO HAITI TO THE SW N ATLC NEAR 28N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 15N BETWEEN 68W-78W...INCLUDING HAITI...WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA. EAST OF 65W...NORTHERLY FLOW DOMINATES ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE NE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO...VIRGIN ISLANDS AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD TO BE SW OF JAMAICA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN INTO A SURFACE TROUGH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED SW OF HAITI NEAR 15N74W. AT THE SURFACE AND WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTER...A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16N75W FROM WHICH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NE TO HAITI...THUS GENERATING A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL HAITI TO WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL THE SURFACE LOW DRIFTS WESTWARD AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC WITH BASE NEAR 31N66W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N62W TO 28N64W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A SHEAR LINE TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO SE CUBA NEAR 21N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR LINE FROM 20N-26N. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 27N63W SW TO NORTHERN HAITI NEAR 19N72W TO A 1008 MB LOW SE OF JAMAICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE E OF THE NORTHERN TROUGH FROM 21N-29N BETWEEN 60W-64W. FARTHER EAST...A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N47W SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 19N44W TO 13N45W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. FARTHER EAST...MIDDLE-LEVEL DIVERGENCE SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 09N-23N BETWEEN 20W- 31W...INCLUDING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR