000 AXNT20 KNHC 041210 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON NOV 04 2013 CORRECTED ISSUE TIME TO EST TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... NO TROPICAL WAVES ARE ON THE 04/0600 UTC SURFACE MAP. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF LIBERIA NEAR 7N12W TO 4N20W 2N30W 1N35W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 12W AND 14W...FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 19W AND 21W...FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 21W AND 22W...AND FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 23W AND 28W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 19N43W 13N44W 6N44W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 15N41W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 8N TO 21N BETWEEN 35W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 20N103W IN MEXICO TO 25N98W IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO...BEYOND 32N92W IN NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE... APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE 26N80W 24N85W 19N90W 15N90W. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS REACHING THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS OF LOUISIANA AND TEXAS BETWEEN 92W AND 97W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 24N96W IN THE WESTERN GULF WATERS...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS THAT RANGE IN HEIGHT FROM 4000 FEET TO 8000 FEET ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KMZG... KBBF...KBQX...KVAF...KEMK...KHQI...KGUL...KGBK...KMDJ...KMYT... AND KDLP. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS FROM ANGLETON-LAKE JACKSON TO THE HOUSTON HOBBY AIRPORT INCLUDING IN GALVESTON. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN PENSACOLA FLORIDA...INCLUDING ALL AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN IN LOUISIANA. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE EAST OF 83W. ...HISPANIOLA... ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ALONG 27N64W 23N67W TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN 69W AND 70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 63W AND 66W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 21N TO 22N BETWEEN 67W AND 71W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH CURVES FROM A 1009 MB CARIBBEAN SEA LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 17N75W TO 14N73W AND TO THE PENINSULA DE PARAGUANA OF NORTHWESTERN COASTAL VENEZUELA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 17N IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 65W AND 67W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 20N83W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND SURROUNDING AREAS FROM 10N TO 24N BETWEEN 76W AND 92W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 79W. ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 86W. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 04/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...ARE 2.48 IN CURACAO...AND 0.97 IN GUADELOUPE. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 18 HOURS OR SO OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A RIDGE STARTS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. THAT SMALLER-SCALE RIDGE EVENTUALLY WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES. IT IS OVERTAKEN BY A COMPARATIVELY LARGER-SCALE RIDGE THAT IS ALONG 79W/80W...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 30N INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER STARTS IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND IT ENDS UP NEAR 17N80W...ABOUT 170 NM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA. FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO 28N77W AND TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 27N80W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO 29N70W 26N80W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N65W...JUST TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA...TO 27N70W AND 25N73W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 25N73W TO CUBA NEAR 22N80W. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 22N80W TO 20N85W AND TO NORTHWESTERN COASTAL HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 20N83W...TO THE NORTH OF EASTERN HONDURAS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND SURROUNDING AREAS FROM 10N TO 24N BETWEEN 76W AND 92W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 79W. ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 86W. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 12N75W 10N80W BEYOND 10N86W IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IT IS NOT REALLY EASY TO FIND PRECIPITATION THAT IS RELATED SOLELY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS PRESENT WITH THE 20N83W CYCLONIC CENTER. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 75W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N17W TO A 28N25W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 26N31W...TO A 27N45W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 33N11W 31N17W 29N36W 27N43W 26N50W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 60W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...COLD FROM 31N67W TO 25N73W...AND STATIONARY FROM 25N73W TO 22N80W. SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS...THE COMPARATIVELY HIGHEST SEAS HEIGHTS IN THE NORTHERN PART. SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE WEST OF THE BAHAMAS IN THE GULF STREAM. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET FROM 16.5N TO 27N TO THE EAST OF 54W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 9 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT