000 AXNT20 KNHC 040604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EDT MON NOV 04 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... NO TROPICAL WAVES ARE ON THE 04/0000 UTC SURFACE MAP AT THIS TIME. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO 4N20W 2N30W 2N35W 1N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 43W...INTO BRAZIL NEAR 2S48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 5N TO 9N NEAR SIERRA LEONE/GUINEA BETWEEN 10W AND 14W...AND FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 18W AND 22W...AND FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 22W AND 30W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 19N41W 13N43W 6N45W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 15N41W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 8N TO 21N BETWEEN 35W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 19N101W IN MEXICO TO 24N99W IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO...BEYOND 32N92W IN NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE... APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE 26N80W 24N85W 19N90W 15N90W. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS REACHING THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS OF LOUISIANA AND TEXAS BETWEEN 92W AND 97W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST...BEYOND THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS THAT RANGE IN HEIGHT FROM 3000 FEET TO 6000 FEET ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE EAST OF 82W. ...HISPANIOLA... ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ALONG 26N66W 23N67W 20N69W...JUST TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 23N73W...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA/THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO A 1008 MB CARIBBEAN SEA LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 17N75W... CURVING TO 15N75W AND 12N74W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 64W AND 66W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ELSEWHERE FROM THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA TO 25N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE ALSO COVERS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT GOES FROM 13N TO 32N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...MIATWOAT...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE FACT THAT HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N83W...TO THE NORTH OF EASTERN HONDURAS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND SURROUNDING AREAS FROM 10N TO 24N BETWEEN 76W AND 92W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 24N BETWEEN 76W AND 87W. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 04/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...ARE 2.48 IN CURACAO...AND 0.97 IN GUADELOUPE. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 18 HOURS OR SO OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A RIDGE STARTS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. THAT SMALLER-SCALE RIDGE EVENTUALLY WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES. IT IS OVERTAKEN BY A COMPARATIVELY LARGER-SCALE RIDGE THAT IS ALONG 79W/80W...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 30N INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER STARTS IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND IT ENDS UP NEAR 17N80W...ABOUT 170 NM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA. FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N73W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 28N80W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE... APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO 29N70W 26N80W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO 28N70W AND 25N74W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 25N74W TO CUBA NEAR 22N79W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N84W...INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N83W...TO THE NORTH OF EASTERN HONDURAS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND SURROUNDING AREAS FROM 10N TO 24N BETWEEN 76W AND 92W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 24N BETWEEN 76W AND 87W. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N/11N BETWEEN 75W IN NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA BEYOND 86W IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IT IS NOT REALLY EASY TO FIND PRECIPITATION THAT IS RELATED SOLELY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS PRESENT WITH THE 196N83W CYCLONIC CENTER. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 75W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N16W TO A 29N25W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 26N27W 26N32W...TO A 28N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 34N10W 32N17W 30N27W 29N34W 27N45W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 62W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...COLD FROM 31N68W TO 25N74W...AND STATIONARY FROM 25N74W TO 23N78W. NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT. SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE TO 9 FEET TO THE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET WITHIN THE AREA THAT IS BOUNDED BY A LINE THAT GOES FROM 31N35W TO 16N35W TO 16N45W TO 20N55W TO 25N55W TO 31N38W TO 31N35W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT