000 AXNT20 KNHC 031748 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EDT SUN NOV 03 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... NONE ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N13W AND END NEAR 5N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N14W TO 4N25W TO 5N34W TO 3N40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 10W- 18W...AND FROM 2N-12N BETWEEN 18W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS NEAR 35N91W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO CENTRAL TEXAS. 15-25 KT NE WINDS IS NOTED OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA NEAR 22N80W TO BEYOND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 20N87W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 84W-88W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 20N101W PRODUCING NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE E TO SOUTH CAROLINA WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE CENTRAL GULF. 20 KT E WINDS OVER THE NE GULF WILL BE THE DOMINATE WINDS IN THE GULF. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA NEAR 22N80W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N87W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 80W-88W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 80W-83W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE S BAHAMAS AT 22N73W THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO AN EMBEDDED 1009 MB LOW AT 17N74W TO N COLOMBIA AT 12N74W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 10N TO BEYOND 20N BETWEEN 67W-74W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N OF PUERTO RICO AT 23N66W TO THE MONA PASSAGE AT 18N68W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 15N BETWEEN 60W-67W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N83W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 17N79W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO REMAIN STATIONARY WITH CONVECTION. HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENTLY OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT CONVECTION TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N69W TO W CUBA NEAR 22N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. TWO SURFACE TROUGHS ARE N OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE S BAHAMAS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 67W-74W... AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF PUERTO RICO FROM 20-22N BETWEEN 60W-67W. A 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES AT 39N33W. IN THE TROPICS...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N41W TO 6N42W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N60W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 18N-32N BETWEEN 50W-60W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 14N42W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 30W-40W. EXPECT THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA