000 AXNT20 KNHC 031155 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EDT SUN NOV 03 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... NO TROPICAL WAVES ARE ON THE 03/0600 UTC SURFACE MAP AT THIS TIME. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 5N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N14W TO 2N18W 4N22W 5N34W 4N36W AND 5N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 34W AND 36W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 42W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 40W/41W FROM 9N TO 17N. THE ITCZ IS DISCONTINUED TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS/OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A.... ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS... DISSIPATING AS YOU GO MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN CUBA/THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH DISAPPEARS WITH THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 16N83W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE... APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N72W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND ANDROS ISLAND...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO 20N86W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 18N92W IN MEXICO...JUST TO THE EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE- FORCE WINDS ARE DIMINISHING WITH TIME IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 19N TO 23N BETWEEN 83W AND 87W...FROM THE COAST OF CUBA ON THE GULF OF MEXICO SIDE TO THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N74W 26N80W 20N89W 18N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 31N70W 28N72W 25N75W 22N76W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... CLOUD CEILINGS THAT RANGE IN HEIGHT FROM 3500 FEET TO 7000 FEET ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KVAF... KEMK...KGUL...KGBK...KHQI...KMYT...KMDJ...AND KIPN. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. THE SKIES ARE CLEARING FROM PUNTA GORDA TO FORT MYERS. THE VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED TO 10 MILES IN BROOKSVILLE FLORIDA. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS FLORIDA IN NAPLES. CLOUD CEILINGS RANGING FROM 6000 FEET TO 10000 FEET COVER THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST AND MARATHON KEY. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS IN THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE WIND SPEEDS THAT CURRENTLY ARE DECREASING TO SPEEDS THAT ARE LESS THAN GALE-FORCE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED TO A POSITION THAT IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 9 TO 11 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 22N TO THE WEST OF 94W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 93W. A THIRD AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28.5N BETWEEN 84W AND 91W. ...HISPANIOLA... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 23N61W 22N66W 19N68W. A CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 74W FROM 12N TO 21N... FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 15N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HAITI..FROM THE VENEZUELA COAST TO THE WATERS THAT ARE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE. SCATTERED STRONG SURROUND PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ELSEWHERE FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE COLOMBIA COAST TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 73W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 16N83W...TO THE NORTH OF EASTERN HONDURAS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS FORECAST TO COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF HISPANIOLA...WHILE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS FORECAST TO COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A RIDGE STARTS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IT MOVES WESTWARD WITH TIME...IN ORDER TO BE ALONG THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA... INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 03/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...IS 0.56 IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N BETWEEN 76W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS COSTA RICA...BEYOND 86W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IT IS NOT REALLY EASY TO FIND PRECIPITATION THAT IS RELATED SOLELY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS PRESENT WITH THE 16N83W CYCLONIC CENTER. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 75W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N64W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 22N TO 33N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM A 33N22W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 28N22W 26N29W 24N40W 25N46W...TO A 30N50W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N16W TO 22N20W 22N37W...TO A 13N41W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 8N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 10N TO 20N TO THE EAST OF 40W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 60W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 31N72.5W 26N77W 24N80W COLD FRONT. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 9 FEET FROM 21N TO 26N TO THE EAST OF 50W. STILL ANOTHER AREA OF WINDS CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 18N TO 27N TO THE EAST OF 52W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT