000 AXNT20 KNHC 021123 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT NOV 02 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO. A COLD FRONT WILL BE ALONG 27N82.5W 23N90W 20N96W. EXPECT NORTH WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 11 FEET FROM 20.5N TO 24N TO THE WEST OF 94W. ALSO EXPECT NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST OF 93.5W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... THERE ARE NO TROPICAL WAVES AT THIS TIME. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA- BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 8N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N19W TO 7N30W 7N37W AND 5N45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG FROM 4N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 24W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN 24W AND 35W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 38W AND 45W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 45W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.A./EAST-CENTRAL U.S.A...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...TO 27N86W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 26N90W AND 26N96W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N81W 27N84W 25N89W...WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 23N93W...AND IN COASTAL MEXICO FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 97W AND 98W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF 26N82W 23N90W 19N95W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 93W TO THE SOUTH OF 19N...ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE ICAO STATION KEMK. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KGUL... KGBK...KEIR...AND KSPR. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...AND IN SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL LOUISIANA. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE STATIONS THAT SURROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A VISIBILITY OF ONE MILE AND FOG IS BEING REPORTED AT THE PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AIRPORT...ICAO STATION KECP. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED IN BROOKSVILLE FLORIDA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION PRECEDE THE CURRENT GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES AND LOWER WITH FOG ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM FORT MYERS TO PUNTA GORDA IN FLORIDA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS IN THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT FROM 29.5N83W TO 25.5N90W TO 25N97.5W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET. ...HISPANIOLA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 19N71W 15N73W 12N74W FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF VENEZUELA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN HISPANIOLA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 02/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN...IS 1.96 IN CURACAO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 12N82W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 14N80W...TO JAMAICA...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 22N75W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS REACHING HISPANIOLA. MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE ABOUND. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START NEAR 12N73W. THE CYCLONIC CENTER WILL MOVE TO JAMAICA...AND END UP NEAR 16N73W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA DURING THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT 12N82W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. THE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BE REPLACED BY ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT 12N82W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. THE PURELY SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BE REPLACED BY ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N60W...TO A 27N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 23N70W...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO 14N80W...TO A 12N82W SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N56W 25N60W 22N62W 19N64W JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND PUERTO RICO TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 19N65W 15N65W 12N66W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 02/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN...IS 0.39 IN GUADELOUPE. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 02/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...IS 1.96 IN CURACAO AND 0.39 IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N74W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH 10N80W JUST OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA...BEYOND 10N85W IN COSTA RICA... INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 75W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATED TO THE 12N82W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N14W TO 26N19W...TO A 22N20W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 18N25W... TO A 14N37W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 14N49W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SURROUNDS THIS AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 20N TO THE EAST OF 60W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 80W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 16.5N TO 25N TO THE EAST OF 46W. WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 26N TO THE EAST OF 47W. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W. A THIRD AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 75W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT