000 AXNT20 KNHC 020604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT NOV 02 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 18 HOURS OR SO. A COLD FRONT WILL BE ALONG 27N82W 22N90W 20N96W. EXPECT NORTH WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF 23N TO THE WEST OF 95W. ALSO EXPECT NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST OF 92W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... THERE ARE NO TROPICAL WAVES AT THIS TIME. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA- BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 10N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N17W TO 8N21W 8N32W 6N43W AND 5N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG FROM 4N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W...AND FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 30W AND 39W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 39W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.A. TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...TO THE APALACHEE BAY OF FLORIDA...TO 26N90W AND 26N94W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN MEXICO FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN THE COAST AND 101W. NUMEROUS STRONG ALSO IS IN NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA FROM 29N TO 32N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N84W 26N90W 24N98W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 94W TO THE SOUTH OF 22...ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KVAF...AND KGUL. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE ICAO STATION KBQX. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS FROM EARLIER REPORTS ARE CLEARING IN THE AREAS THAT ARE BETWEEN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AND THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS REMAIN IN GALVESTON AND THE BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR AREAS. HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED IN MARY ESTHER AND VALPARAISO IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA COAST/COASTAL PLAINS FROM PANAMA CITY TO TALLAHASSEE AND PERRY. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS IN THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT FROM 30N86W TO 25N97W. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO 85W. ...HISPANIOLA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 70W/71W...FROM 20N ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE COASTAL WATERS THAT SURROUND HISPANIOLA...AND ALSO TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 67W AND 75W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 02/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...IS 1.96 IN CURACAO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 12N82W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 14N80W...TO JAMAICA...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 22N75W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS REACHING HISPANIOLA. MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE ABOUND. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES TO THE EAST OF 82W. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START NEAR 12N73W. THE CYCLONIC CENTER WILL MOVE TO JAMAICA...AND END UP NEAR 16N73W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA DURING THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT 12N82W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. THE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BE REPLACED BY ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT 12N82W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. THE PURELY SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BE REPLACED BY ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N60W...TO A 27N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 23N70W...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO 14N80W...TO A 12N82W SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 63W AND 65W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 20N60W BEYOND 32N50W. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 63W/64W TO THE SOUTH OF 19N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 60W AND THE ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM MARTINIQUE TO THE MONA PASSAGE. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 02/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...IS 0.39 IN GUADELOUPE. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 02/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...IS 1.96 IN CURACAO AND 0.39 IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N75W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH 9N80W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 10N84W IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 75W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATED TO THE 12N82W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N14W TO 26N19W...TO A 22N20W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 18N25W... TO A 15N37W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 14N49W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SURROUNDS THIS AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 20N TO THE EAST OF 60W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 80W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 16N TO 26N TO THE EAST OF 45W. WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 26N TO THE EAST OF 47W. EXPECT ALSO EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 58W AND 63W. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 60W AND 67W. A THIRD AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 74W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT